Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders odds, picks and predictions

The Toronto Maple Leafs (14-6-4) and New York Islanders (12-7-7) meet Monday on Long Island. The opening puck drop at UBS Arena is slated for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Maple Leafs vs. Islanders odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

Toronto beat the Nashville Predators 4-0 Saturday and is 4-0-1 over its last 5 games. The Maple Leafs allowed just 18 shots against the Preds after having coughed up after allowing 37.4 shots per contest over their previous 7 games.

The Islanders collected a 3-2 overtime win over the Los Angeles Kings Saturday. That game was at home, where New York has often struggled so far this season (6-3-5). The Isles head into this tilt having won back-to-back games on home ice for the 1st time since Oct. 14 and Oct. 17.

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Maple Leafs at Islanders odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:29 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Maple Leafs -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Islanders +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
• Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs -1.5 (+190) | Islanders +1.5 (-250)
• Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Maple Leafs at Islanders projected goalies

Ilya Samsonov (5-1-3, 3.21 GAA, .886 SV%) vs. Ilya Sorokin (7-4-6, 3.12 GAA, .913 SV%)

Samsonov has a history of being a fast starter, but he got off to a slow start this season (.855 SV% 1st 7 games). He owns a .930 mark since, but that includes a 15-day stretch when he did not play. Samsonov returned in Saturday's game against Nashville and stopped 18-of-18 shots.

Sorokin started Saturday's game and allowed 2 goals on 36 shots. The 28-year-old has run hot-and-cold lately, mixing in a couple 5-goals-allowed games in his last 4. He owns a nifty .922 SV% at home, however.

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Maple Leafs at Islanders picks and predictions

Prediction

Maple Leafs 4, Islanders 3

Moneyline

The Maple Leafs are 5-2 in their last 7 games against the Islanders.

Toronto has been solid lately and has been especially stingy of late on the penalty kill (96.3% last 9 games).

New York owns a shaky 41.4% Corsi-for (even-strength) over its last 6 games.

Expected-goals versus actual reveals potential for better offensive numbers for the Leafs and worse defensive ones for the Isles. New York has also likely been pretty fortunate in leading the NHL in high-danger shot percentage against (6.9%).

BACK TORONTO (-120).

Puck line/Against the spread

The Over has a lean here, so this is a play we would want to make. But a) Samsonov's 2nd start back muddles that side of the equation a little, b) the Leafs have been engaged in a slew of 1-goal tussles of late, and c) the price here is not too attractive.

PASS.

Over/Under

The total has gone Over in 10 of Toronto's last 14 games and in 5 of New York's last 6. And across the last 18 games of this series played at New York, the Over has cashed 13 times.

Again, the analytics point to some Over-favoring regression in the Leafs offense and Islanders defense. Add in somewhat of a question mark in Samsonov, and the OVER 6.5 (+104) on FanDuel Sportsbook makes for a solid leverage play.

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