New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico State vs. Fresno State odds, picks and predictions
The New Mexico State Aggies (10-4) and Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4) meet in the Isleta New Mexico Bowl on Saturday at University Stadium in Albuquerque. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:45 p.m. ET (ESPN/ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the New Mexico State vs. Fresno State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Aggies won 10 games for just the 2nd time in school history and the 1st time since 1960. While New Mexico State lost at Liberty in the Conference USA Championship Game last time out, it is still an impressive 9-1-1 against the spread (ATS) in the past 11 games overall.
New Mexico State lost QB Diego Pavia to an undisclosed injury midway through the C-USA title game, too, but he is healthy and ready for the bowl game. While he won't have WR Trent Hudson, who had 35 catches for 565 yards and 10 TD, after he hit the transfer portal, that is really the only notable loss for the Aggies.
Fresno State has a handful of injuries, particularly to OT Jacob Spomer and a couple of depth pieces who transferred out. Coach Jeff Tedford also will not be with the team due to health concerns, so linebackers coach Tim Skipper takes over in the interim.
The Bulldogs lost 3 in a row to close out the season, averaging just 17.7 PPG in those outings while the defense was blasted for 30 or more points in 3 of the final 4 games. Fresno State ended up covering just once in the final 8 regular-season games, too.
Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll powered by Paste BN Sports
Stream select live college football games and full replays: Get ESPN+
New Mexico State vs. Fresno State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9:20 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): New Mexico State -185 (bet $185 to win $100) | Fresno State +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
- Against the spread (ATS): New Mexico State -3.5 (-115) | Fresno State +3.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 51.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
New Mexico State vs. Fresno State picks and predictions
Prediction
New Mexico State 31, Fresno State 26
Moneyline
New Mexico State (-185) is just a little too expensive for my liking, slightly over my personal limit of -180 for a standalone ML wager. If you were to toss the Aggies into a multi-team parlay, I could live with that, but not just straight up.
PASS.
Against the spread
NEW MEXICO STATE -3.5 (-115) is a solid play. Pavia is a gifted player that not many people have gotten the opportunity to see play. Unfortunately, when he was in the spotlight in the C-USA title game at Liberty, he was knocked out early. He is a dual-threat option who will help the Aggies move the ball well against the Bulldogs.
The Aggies will also have the benefit of a home-team advantage, as it is a quick 3-hour drive north from Las Cruces to Albuquerque, and that will help Jerry Kill's bunch, too.
Fresno State +3.5 (-105) is not an attractive play for a number of those reasons, but also because it was 1-7 ATS in the final 8 games of the regular season.
Over/Under
OVER 51.5 (-105) is a solid play in this bowl game.
The Bulldogs struggled to put points on the board down the stretch, scoring 18 or fewer in each of the final 3 outings. But the defense had issues, coughing up 30 or more points in 3 of the final 4 outings, and the Over was 3-1 in those games and 5-2 in the final 7 contests.
The Aggies were good for 31 or more points on offense in 3 of the final 4 games, and the defense was trampled for 49 points in the C-USA title game, which has to give the Bulldogs some hope that they can cobble together some offense after some late-season struggles.
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.
College sports coverage from Paste BN Sports Media Group:
Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Clemson / Colorado / Florida / Georgia / Iowa / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Nebraska / North Carolina / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / Texas A&M / USC / Wisconsin / Recruiting / Transfer portal / College Football Playoffs / College Sports Wire