Alabama at Creighton odds, picks and predictions
The Alabama Crimson Tide (6-3) and Creighton Bluejays (8-2) clash Saturday. Tipoff at the CHI Health Center will be at 8 p.m. ET (FOX). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Alabama vs. Creighton odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
Alabama has been off since last Saturday when it dropped a 92-86 game as a 5.5-point underdog against current-No. 4 Purdue. This game in Omaha continues a tough UA slate, which to date already ranks in the KenPom top 40 for difficulty. Crimson Tide bettors will be looking for a 1st UA win against the spread (ATS) since Nov. 17.
Creighton, which is No. 8 in the Paste BN Sports Coaches Poll, has filed a couple of sloppy losses over its last 5 games. The most recent of those came in the Bluejays' last game, a 79-64 loss as 13.5-point favorites at UNLV Wednesday. CU was outshot by a wide margin in that loss; it has been dialed in at home, however. The 'Jays own the nation's best effective field-goal percentage in home games (67.2%).
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Alabama at Creighton odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Alabama +280 (bet $100 to win $280) | Creighton -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Alabama +7.5 (-110) | Creighton -7.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 165.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Alabama at Creighton picks and predictions
Prediction
Creighton 85, Alabama 77
Moneyline
PASS: no value on these prices.
Against the spread
Creighton is 4-1 ATS at home.
Three of Alabama's last 4 games have been encouraging on a lot of fronts, and the crucible of a schedule the Tide has been through makes them a lean at this touchdown-plus level — just not enough of a lean. PASS.
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Over/Under
The total has gone Under in 5 of Creighton's last 6 games against an opponent from the SEC. Across CU's last 6 games lined as a home favorite of 6.5-9 points, the Under has gone 5-1.
In what is not a terribly attractive betting game overall, the best leverage is here, on the total. The match-up features rabbit-fast Alabama and moderate-to-slow Creighton. There are a couple of UA score-spiral factors (offensive rebound/putbacks and free-throw frequency) which are mitigated by Creighton's style and skill sets. But both teams fire long-distance missiles at machine-gun frequency — the 3s will get this combo score up likely well past 150. Both teams own 3-point rates in the nation's top 30.
But peg the make rates on those triples (40.9% for UA, 39% for CU) as being due some regression. Both teams also play good perimeter defense, so there is some strength-on-strength that comes into play. Creighton also excels in forcing paint and short-range looks into more of the mid-range variety.
So ticket this one for the high 150s, maybe even 160 or so. But there is at least some value in the UNDER 165. 5 (-110).
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