LSU vs. Texas odds, picks and predictions
The LSU Tigers (6-4) and Texas Longhorns (7-2) are lined up for a Saturday battle as part of The Halal Guys Showcase in Houston. Tipoff at the Toyota Center will be at noon ET (ESPN2). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook's lines around the LSU vs. Texas odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
The Tigers played Wednesday, bouncing back from a Saturday loss and defeating Alabama State 74-56. Louisiana State failed to cover a -21 spread, and over its last 5 games, is 0-5 against the number. LSU did cover in the last meeting between these programs — the Tigers were 1.5-point underdogs in their 69-67 victory Jan. 25, 2020.
The Longhorns, ranked No. 22 in the Paste BN Sports Coaches Poll, failed to cover a -33.5 their last time out, which was a 77-50 victory against Houston Christian on Saturday. Texas is 1-7 against the spread (ATS) since Nov. 10.
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LSU vs. Texas odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: LSU +260 (bet $100 to win $260) | Texas -330 (bet $330 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): LSU +7.5 (-110) | Texas -7.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 142.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
LSU vs. Texas picks and predictions
Prediction
Texas 73, LSU 69
Moneyline
PASS, but consider a lean toward live-dog LSU in this one. A +275 price would be worth some partial-unit action.
Against the spread
The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Texas. The Longhorns are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against foes from the the Southeastern Conference. This season, UT is 0-2 ATS on neutral hardwood.
Texas figures to be overrated by a decent stretch being placed in the top 25. Both KenPom and the similar BartTorvik.com peg UT as being down several clicks from there. Neither side has played a challenging schedule so far, but that especially applies to the perception of the 'Horns right now. KenPom rates the UT slate No. 322 in NCAA-I.
This one also sets up for clashing regression in some key numbers, including the 3-point defensive percentages for each side — UT at 29.9% and LSU at 46.3%. That Texas number is even more suspect when seeing how some models evaluate the quality of 3-point looks allowed.
Add in LSU having top-30 national ranks in turnover creation and free-throw frequency. Despite playing at a mid-pace, the Tigers have gotten to the stripe 23.0 times per game.
Texas may also be a bit rusty after 6 off days. The last time UT played on 5-plus days' rest, it logged its season-low in effective field-goal shooting (45%) in an 86-65 loss to Marquette.
LSU doesn't need to be Marquette to stay within 7 Saturday. BACK THE TIGERS +7.5 (-110).
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Over/Under
Mid-tempo match-up, mid-temp total, and no open or closed gates on either side of the offense vs. defense equation. PASS.
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