Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets odds, picks and predictions

Nathan Beighle | Staff Writer

The Denver Nuggets (17-9) welcome the Oklahoma City Thunder (15-8) to Ball Arena Saturday. Tip is set for 9 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Thunder vs. Nuggets odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Season series: Nuggets lead 1-0.

Denver beat Oklahoma City 128-95 Oct. 29, covering as a 3.5-point road favorite. It is coming off a 124-101 home win over the Brooklyn Nets Thursday. The Nuggets covered as 9-point favorites and have covered in 3 straight. They are 11-15 against the spread (ATS) on the season and 2-4 ATS over their last 6 home games.

The Thunder lost to the Sacramento Kings 128-123 Thursday, failing to cover as 2.5-point road underdogs. They are 1-3 ATS over their last 4 games but 15-8 ATS on the season. The Thunder have won 4 of their last 6. Oklahoma City is led by G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 31 points per game.

Thunder at Nuggets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Thunder +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Nuggets -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Thunder +4.5 (-105) | Nuggets -4.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 236.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Thunder at Nuggets key injuries

Thunder

None

Nuggets

G Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (concussion protocol) out
F Aaron Gordon (heel) probable
G Jamal Murray (ankle) probable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Thunder at Nuggets picks and predictions

Prediction

Nuggets 122, Thunder 119

Moneyline

PASS.

While the moneyline may be enticing for Oklahoma City, the spread offers more value.

Against the spread

BET THUNDER +4.5 (-105).

The Thunder should match up well with the Nuggets. They have athletic wings to keep F Michael Porter Jr. at bay, and the length in C Chet Holmgren to potentially cause issues for C Nikola Jokic.

OKC is 7-3-1 ATS on the road, the best covering record in the NBA. Denver is 10-12-1 ATS as a favorite this season. It is just 1-2 ATS in its last 3 home games.

Given the matchups and trends, take THUNDER +4.5 (-105).

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 236.5 (-110).

The Nuggets have gone Over in 4 of their last 8 games and are 4-3-1 O/U in that span. The Thunder are 14-9 O/U on the season and have gone Over in 3 straight games. They have scored 134 or more in 2 of their last 3 games.

The Thunder rank 6th in pace while the Nuggets rank 6th in efficient field goal rate (55.3%). Both teams have an ultra-efficient offense and play fast. With that in mind, take OVER 236.5 (-110).

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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