UFC 296: Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett odds, picks and predictions
In a 3-round lightweight bout on the main card, Tony Ferguson and Paddy Pimblett meet Saturday at UFC 296 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Let's analyze FanDuel Sportsbook's lines around the UFC 296: Ferguson vs. Pimblett odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The early prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ starting at 6:30 p.m. ET, with the prelims on ESPN2/ESPN+ starting at 8 p.m. ET, and the main card begins on Pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET.
Records: Ferguson (26-9-0) | Pimblett (20-3-0)
Ferguson, the former champ, has been in freefall lately, and this fight could be the final straw. He has lost 6 consecutive bouts, although setbacks in a title fight to Justin Gaethje, and losses to the likes of Charles Oliveria, Beneil Dariush, Michael Chandler and Nate Diaz are nothing to be ashamed about. He was tapped by Michael Green last time out at UFC 291 and just cannot pull out of his current nosedive.
Pimblett, a.k.a. "Paddy the Baddy", has won all 4 of his bouts since arriving on the scene in the UFC. He went the distance against Jared Gordon at UFC 282, the 1st time he hadn't finished inside the distance. He has 2 submission victories and a KO/TKO against Luigi Vendramini to his credit at the UFC level so far.
Ferguson holds a 3.5-inch reach advantage, but Pimblett is much quicker thanks to less wear and tear, and 11 more years of youthfulness. Ferguson holds a 4.98-to-4.19 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while Pimblett is much more accurate with those strikes at 53.27% to just 47.96% for the former champ. Pimblett also has a solid 2.42 submission average to his credit.
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UFC 296: Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Ferguson +245 (bet $100 to win $245) | Pimblett -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -106 | Under -120)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +132 | No -168)
UFC Fight Night 296: Tony Ferguson vs. Paddy Pimblett picks and predictions
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Betting Pimblett (-300) straight up is too much risk for not enough reward, as he'll cost you 3 times your potential return. Instead, get a little more specific. PIMBLETT BY KO/TKO (+340) is a tempting play, as it gives you a chance to more than triple up your initial wager.
If you don't want to declare a winner but want action, play KO/TKO (+190) on the "how will the fight end" prop. Without declaring a winner you still have a chance to nearly double up if Ferguson or Pimblett score a knockout blow.
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-120) is certainly worth a roll of the dice. Pimblett has fought into Round 3 just once in his 4 fights at the UFC level, so just not seeing this lasting past Round 2.
NO (-168): WILL FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? isn't priced out of line, but it is a little more for the conservative bettor. Under 2.5 Rounds is a much better value.
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