Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Skyler Carlin | Staff Writer

The Atlanta Hawks (12-15) take on the Miami Heat (16-12) on Friday at Kaseya Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Hawks vs. Heat odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Season series: Miami leads 1-0

The Hawks covered as 2.5-point road underdogs, and the Over (233.5) easily cleared, in their 134-127 win over the Houston Rockets on Wednesday. Atlanta has won 3 of its last 4 games and 2 of those wins came on the road.

The Heat defeated the Orlando Magic 115-106 on Wednesday to cover as 5.5-point road underdogs, and the Under (219) hit. F Jimmy Butler will miss his 2nd straight game, but G Tyler Herro made his return to the lineup on Wednesday.

Hawks at Heat odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:36 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Hawks +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Heat -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Hawks +1.5 (-110) | Heat -1.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 237.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Hawks at Heat key injuries

Hawks

F Jalen Johnson (wrist) out

Heat

F Jimmy Butler (calf) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Hawks at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 118, Hawks 113

Moneyline

Even with Butler ruled out, I'll back the HEAT (-120) at home against a Hawks team that has been disappointing this season. With both Herro and C Bam Adebayo available, Miami has enough to secure the victory on Friday.

The Heat have won 7 of the last 10 meetings against the Hawks.

Against the spread

HEAT -1.5 (-110) has slightly better value than taking the moneyline as they'll need to win by only 2 points to cover the spread. In each of its last 13 wins, Miami has won by at least 2 points.

The Hawks are also 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

Over/Under

Despite the Hawks playing at the 5th-fastest pace in the NBA, UNDER 237.5 (-115) is the ideal play in this matchup. The Heat play at the 5th-slowest pace and have the 3rd-best defensive rebound percentage, so teams don't get many 2nd-chance shots on them.

The Under (228) hit in the 1st meeting this season back on Nov. 11. On top of that, the Over is 2-8 in the last 10 meetings between the Hawks and the Heat.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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