Birmingham Bowl: Troy vs. Duke odds, picks and predictions
The Troy Trojans (11-2) and Duke Blue Devils (7-5) clash in Saturday’s Birmingham Bowl. Kickoff at Protective Stadium innAlabama is slated for noon ET (ABC). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Troy vs. Duke odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Troy is on a 10-game winning streak after beating Appalachian State 49-23 in the Dec. 2 Sun Belt Championship. The Trojans covered the spread as a 5.5-point favorite and sailed over the total of 53.5. Junior RB Kimani Vidal ran for 233 yards (9 yards per carry) and 5 TDs in the victory.
Troy's defense is what brought home the championship though, as they allowed just 17.1 points per game this season, 10th-best in the nation. Troy will be lead by defensive coordinator Greg Gasparato as interim head coach after Jon Sumrall's departure to Tulane.
The Blue Devils limped to the finish line of their season, losing 4 of their last 6 games. Duke lost starting QB Riley Leonard and back-up QB Henry Belin IV to injuries which forced 3rd string freshman QB Grayson Loftis into duty. He went 2-2 as the starter over the final 4 games. Duke did beat the Pittsburgh Panthers 30-19 in its regular-season finale as Loftis threw for 248 yards, 2 TDs and 1 INT. Blue Devil's running back coach Trooper Taylor will serve at interim head coach after Mike Elko left for Texas A&M.
These 2 teams last met on Sept. 6, 2014, in Alabama. Duke won that game 35-17, but Troy covered as the 17.5-point underdog and the Under (64) hit.
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Troy vs. Duke odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:09 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Troy -280 (bet $280 to win $100) | Duke +225 (bet $100 to win $225)
- Against the spread (ATS): Troy -7.5 (-104) | Duke +7.5 (-118)
- Over/Under (O/U): 44.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Troy vs. Duke picks and predictions
Prediction
Duke 28, Troy 24
Moneyline
BET DUKE (+225).
Despite all the changes at quarterback, I believe Duke gets it done in Birmingham on Saturday.
While we would have liked to see Leonard play in this game, Loftis has looked good in his limited time. He impressed me against UNC's QB Drake Maye, who most believe to be the 2nd-best QB in the country. Loftis averaged 235 passing yards per game over his last 3 starts and threw 7 TDs to just 2 INTs. Duke also covered the spread in 2 of their last 3 games as well with Loftis under center.
Both teams will be without the coach who took them to these bowl games. I believe that change will impact Troy more than Duke. I'll trust the team with the higher level of talent in Duke.
Against the spread
BET DUKE +7.5 (-118).
I think Duke will win this game outright, so obviously I'd take them plus the points as well, although the moneyline offers much better value. This is too many points for Troy to be giving Duke even with their 3rd-string QB running the show.
The Blue Devils also held their opponents to under 20 points per game on the season.
Over/Under
PASS.
Both of these teams are solid defensively which is why my first instinct was to take the Under, but when I took a closer look, it's not so cut and dry. Both teams have gone Over the total in their last 4 games.
If the total was 47 or 48, I would have an easier time making a pick. Because of the number it's set at (44.5), I'm going to just pass on this bet and focus on the moneyline and spread.
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