Armed Forces Bowl: James Madison vs. Air Force odds, picks and predictions
The James Madison Dukes (11-1) and Air Force Falcons (8-4) meet in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl on Saturday at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the James Madison vs. Air Force odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Dukes will be making their 1st-ever trip to an FBS bowl. James Madison was in its 2nd transition season from the FCS to FBS, but since not enough teams qualified for a bowl, JMU was allowed to participate.
James Madison's only blemish was a 26-23 OT loss against Appalachian State at home on Nov. 18. The Dukes scored 30 or more points in 4 of the final 5 games, and it's no surprise the Over was 4-1 in those outings. The defense is legit, too, allowing 14 or fewer points in 3 of the final 4 games, and 5 of the final 7 regular-season contests.
Air Force really sputtered down the stretch. After opening with an 8-0 SU record and a ranking, the Falcons fell 23-3 at home to Army on Nov. 4, and the downward spiral continued. Air Force dropped 4 in a row to finish the season while also going 0-4 against the spread (ATS).
The Dukes had some major upheaval since the end of the season. Coach Curt Cignetti departed for the job at Indiana. QB Jordan McCloud will depart via the transfer portal, but he is expected to play against the Falcons. He completed 68.9% of his passes for 3,400 yards, 32 TD and 9 INT while running for 311 yards and 8 more scores.
JMU RB Ty Son Lawton also announced his intentions to leave via the portal, and he was 2nd on the team with 568 rush yards and 5 TD. Leading receiver Elijah Surratt, who had team bests with 74 catches, 1,076 yards and 8 TD is gone, too.
Air Force wasn't immune to the portal, either. RB John Lee Eldridge leaves the program, and his 77 runs for 518 yards and 6 TD will be missed. QB Zac Larrier is expected to play despite an undisclosed injury.
James Madison is No. 25 in the US LBM Coaches Poll powered by Paste BN Sports.
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James Madison vs. Air Force odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 9:32 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): James Madison -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Air Force +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Against the spread (ATS): James Madison -1.5 (-115) | Air Force +1.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 41 (O: -110 | U: -110)
James Madison vs. Air Force picks and predictions
Prediction
James Madison 29, Air Force 13
Moneyline
If you don't want to fool around with laying the little bit of points, JAMES MADISON (-125) are a decent play in its 1st-ever bowl game.
However, it's a better value to lay the points and pay less in the process.
Against the spread
JAMES MADISON -1.5 (-115) is a better value laying the points, as the Dukes simply need to win by just 2 points, costing you less than the ML play.
The Dukes were an impressive 3-1 ATS in the final 4 regular-season games, and 8-2 ATS in the past 10 games overall.
The Falcons have been in freefall, losing and failing to cover the final 4 games. Air Force is a tremendous rushing team, going for 275.8 rushing yards per game. However, the Falcons will have a difficult time moving the ball, as Eldridge will be missed. More importantly, the Dukes rank 1st in the country against the run, allowing just 61.5 yards per game. It's going to be a slow go for the Falcons, as they cannot simply change to a pass-oriented approach. It's just now how Air Force's offense operates.
Over/Under
OVER 41 (-110) is a decent play. The Dukes were good for 35.2 points per game this season, ranking 18th in the nation, while rolling up 287.1 passing yards per game to rank 17th. James Madison has a diversified offense, and the defense is stout, especially against the run. The Dukes are vulnerable against the pass, but that's just a specialty of the Falcons.
Still, James Madison should do most of the heavy lifting to get this game across the finish line for a slight Over.
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