Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers odds, picks and predictions
The Buffalo Sabres (14-17-3) and New York Rangers (22-8-1) tangle Saturday in Madison Square Garden at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Sabres vs. Rangers odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
Buffalo, which had scored just 2.6 goals per game over its previous 10 contests, reeled in a 9-3 triumph in its last outing vs. Toronto Thursday. The Sabres scored 1 short-handed and 6 even-strength goals in the rout on home ice.
The Rangers played Friday at home, dropping a 4-3 contest against the Edmonton Oilers. The Metropolitan Division's 1st-place team heads into Saturday's tilt looking to avoid a 2nd straight loss at MSG, something it has not had all season.
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Sabres at Rangers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:04 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Sabres +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Rangers -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Sabres +1.5 (-155) | Rangers -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Sabres at Rangers projected goalies
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (6-8-1, 3.17 GAA, .893 SV%, 1 SO) vs. Igor Shesterkin (12-7-0, 2.86 GAA, .906 SV%)
Luukkonen has had 3 days off since being peppered with 5 goals in a 32-minute relief outing Tuesday. He missed much of the front half of December with an illness; he has allowed 5G in 2 of 3 games (149 minutes) since.
Shesterkin last played Tuesday at Toronto, stopping 31 of 33 shots against the NHL's 4th-highest scoring club. The 27-year-old struggled over 3 consecutive starts from Dec. 5-12, but he owns a .945 stop rate over his last 2 games.
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Sabres at Rangers picks and predictions
Prediction
Rangers 5, Sabres 2
Moneyline
Look for the Rangers to bounce back in the Broadway barn that has seen them go 10-4-0 this season. The Rangers are the superior club, and they are a top-of-the-standings squad whose offensive and defensive analytics stand up to scrutiny — the Blueshirts may even be a tad undervalued by their won-loss record.
The Rangers are a decent play at -170 or lower. PASS otherwise.
Puck line/Against the spread
Buffalo trounced New York 5-1 at MSG on Nov. 27, and the same projected netminders for this one were in goal. Perhaps the Rangers had an off night (they were outshot 39-26) after a tough travel stretch the week prior, and perhaps they are a bit salty about that outcome. For either of those reasons or none, they are the best play on the puck line.
New York owns a monster special-teams advantage with a powerplay (31.3%) that ranks 1st in the league and a penalty kill (85.6%) that ranks 4th. Luukkonen's play of late makes some question marks on that side of the equation — if he does not play, we are still looking at a Sabres goalie line that includes an .885 SV% (28th in NHL).
Buffalo ranks 27th in the circuit in rate of even-strength, high-danger shots allowed. New York has below-average conversion percentages and save rates on such shots, and a bit of regression there can be expected and is impactful.
The Rangers have cranked out 33.5 shots per game since Nov. 25, and NEW YORK -1.5 (+125) is worth a partial-unit play.
Over/Under
Recent series games have an Under lean, but there have been an aggregate 25 goals scored in the last 2 Buffalo games, and the Over has some solid value in this contest.
The Sabres expected-versus-actual goals and goals allowed analytics point to high-scoring games ahead. Both teams have trended toward more HD shots allowed of late, and both have due-for-correction shooting percentages on those quality shots over recent weeks.
BACK THE OVER 6 (-120).
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