NFL player props: 5 best bets for Week 16

John Holler | Staff Writer

When making prop bet picks late in the season, the idea is to use the most likely scenario game flow scenario -- a bad team trailing a good team and become one-dimensional or having a big lead and taking the air out of the ball.

Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 16 player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire's NFL expert picks and predictions.

For this week's picks, we have talented players who have been underachieving going under their projection again, 2 star players looking to stake a claim to being a key component to trying to improve their postseason standing and a guy who has only scored 3 TDs.

FOOTBALL NEVER STOPS

Live games, analysis and more 7 days a week: Get ESPN+

NFL Week 16 prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 4:12 a.m. ET. All games ET.

Bills WR Stefon Diggs OVER 69.5 receiving yards (-115)

- At Chargers, Saturday 8 p.m. (Peacock)

Diggs is in one of the worst stretches of his time with the Bills. As Buffalo (8-6) has been saving its season, it has necessarily been Diggs-centric.

In the last 4 games, Diggs has just 18 catches for 173 yards and 1 TD. This has to change.

The current Chargers (5-9) don't put up a legitimate challenge, but until they wave the white flag, the Bills will knock out any teeth that are still left. Diggs will get targeted often and early.

Falcons TE Kyle Pitts UNDER 39.5 receiving yards

- Host Colts, Sunday 1 p.m. (FOX)

Pitts is becoming one of the more monumental draft disappointments in recent non-QB history. Projecting 40 yards is a coin flip.

The Falcons (6-8) are going with backup QB Taylor Heinicke this week. If any TE will get his attention, it will more likely be Jonnu Smith, who has taken practice reps with Heinicke.

Either way, unless Pitts wins a contested pass 20 yards downfield, he will struggle to top this number.

Broncos RB Javonte Williams SCORES A TOUCHDOWN (+140)

- Host Patriots, Sunday 8:15 p.m. (NFL Network)

Williams hasn't posted gaudy numbers this season because the Broncos offense doesn't feature him often as the main man.

In the 2 games (at the time they were played) where the Broncos season was on the line, Williams had 48 carries. Denver (7-7) needs this win to keep its playoff hopes alive.

At home against a Patriots team (3-11) that will give them the opportunity to score many times, if the Broncos have the ball on the 2-yard line and have more than 1 down left, Williams should at least get the ball twice.

Giants RB Saquon Barkley UNDER 55.5 rushing yards (-110)

- At Eagles, Monday 4:30 p.m. (FOX)

The Eagles were 10-1 at one point. They're 0-3 since. Those losses came to the 49ers, Cowboys and Seahawks. These are the Giants (5-9).

If Philly gets the ball first, the score may well be 7-0 before "Tommy Two Weeks" (New York QB Tommy Devito) gets the ball. He has been held under this number in 3 of the last 4 meetings (and had 66 yards in the game that went Over.

By the time the Giants are conceding and handing the ball off to kill clock, Barkley won't be in the game.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

49ers QB Brock Purdy OVER 252.5 passing yards (-115)

- Host Ravens, Monday 8:15 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)

Purdy is an acquired taste when betting the Over, but he backs it up enough that one feels obligated.

This one can be summed up pretty quick. In his home games this season, Purdy's passing yardage numbers are 310, 283, 252, 365, 333 and 368.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

In this matchup of 11-3 teams, the Ravens (11-3) are going to try to take the air out of the ball. The 49ers will try to press up-tempo. That will mean Purdy takes big shots downfield -- and doesn't need to hit too many to hit this Over.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Access more NFL coverage:

[]

Facebook Twitter Email