Liberty Bowl: Memphis vs. Iowa State odds, picks and predictions
The Memphis Tigers (9-3) and Iowa State Cyclones (7-5) meet in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl at the Simmons Bank Liberty Bowl in Memphis, Tenn. on Friday. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN/ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Memphis vs. Iowa State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
This is the 2nd-ever meeting between these teams, and both times have been in the Liberty Bowl game. Iowa State topped Memphis 21-20 as a 3.5-point underdog on Dec. 30, 2017, as the Under (67.5) easily cashed.
The Tigers were a fun bunch during AAC play, posting 452.3 total yards and 39.7 points per game (PPG), while allowing 422.7 total yards and 29.0 PPG. Memphis covered the final 2 games, which was the 1st time it covered in consecutive outings all season. The Over went 10-2 for the Tigers, including 6-0 in the past 6 games overall.
The Cyclones posted a 42-35 win at Kansas State to close the season, winning outright as a 10-point underdog as the Over (46) cashed. Iowa State ended up posting a solid 5-2 ATS mark in the final 7 games, while alternating the Over and Under in the final 6 contests.
Iowa State lost RBs Cartevious Norton and Eli Sanders to the transfer portal, but leading rusher RB Abu Sama III is available. AS3 posted a team-best 610 yards and 6 TD, although he isn't a huge target out of the backfield.
The key to this game will be if Iowa State can slow the prolific offense of Memphis. Iowa State allowed just 349.3 total yards and 21.7 PPG this season.
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Memphis vs. Iowa State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 6:14 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Memphis +310 (bet $100 to win $310) | Iowa State -400 (bet $400 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Memphis +10.5 (-110) | Iowa State -10.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 57.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Memphis vs. Iowa State picks and predictions
Prediction
Memphis 37, Iowa State 34
Moneyline
Playing MEMPHIS (+310) on its home field for the chance to triple up is just too tempting to pass up.
Yes, the Tigers lost to Iowa State (-400) in this game 6 years ago, but there are no coaches or players left over from that game, so it's merely an interesting fact these played each other, and nothing more.
The Tigers are at home, and they went 4-2 SU in the Liberty, with losses only to SMU and Tulane, 2 teams which played in the AAC title game. Memphis is a very good team with a lot of weapons on offense.
Against the spread
If you just can't bring yourself to go with the moneyline play, MEMPHIS +10.5 (-110) is a great play at home.
The Tigers have QB Seth Henigan under center, and he threw for more than 3,500 yards this season with 28 TD in 12 games. He also ran for 247 yards and 4 TD, so the Iowa State -10.5 (-110) defensed will need to be on its toes.
I just don't understand a 9-win team with an explosive offense, with no notable portal player or opt-outs, playing at home catching double digits in a bowl game.
Over/Under
OVER 57.5 (-110) is a slam-dunk play, and it's surprising this number wasn't well into the 60's.
Memphis averaged 39.7 PPG this season, while conceding 29.0 PPG. The Tigers cashed the Over in the final 6 games, and 9 of the past 10 outings. This is an explosive offense which lit up the scoreboard for 44 or more points in 5 of the final 6 games, really finding itself down the stretch. It also allowed 38 or more points in 4 of the final 5, so expect an entertaining contest resembling a video game.
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