Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors odds, picks and predictions

Ryan Dodson | Staff Writer

The Miami Heat (18-12) take on the Golden State Warriors (15-15) Thursday with tip-off from Chase Center set for 10 p.m. ET (NBA TV). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Heat vs. Warriors odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Season series: First meeting; tied 1-1 last season

The Heat have won 4 of 5, including a 119-113 victory Christmas Day against a Joel Embiid-less Philadelphia 76ers squad. The Heat have been rolling despite F Jimmy Butler's absence in the last 3 games. F Jaime Jaquez Jr. has stepped up, averaging 20 PPG in those 3 games, including 31 Monday against the Sixers.

The Warriors snapped a 5-game winning streak with a 120-114 loss to the Denver Nuggets Monday. They covered as 7.5-point underdogs. G Stephen Curry had an off game, going 3-for-13 from distance but had 18 points. G Klay Thompson has improved his play since a really rough start to the season. He's averaging 20 PPG on 45.5% shooting (41.1% from 3) in December.

Heat at Warriors odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:05 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Warriors -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +3.5 (-110) | Warriors -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 228.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Heat at Warriors key injuries

Heat

F Jimmy Butler (calf) questionable
G Kyle Lowry (undisclosed) questionable
G Caleb Martin (ankle) doubtful
G Josh Richardson (back) doubtful
F Duncan Robinson (ankle) questionable

Warriors

F Draymond Green (suspension) out
G Gary Payton II (calf) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Heat at Warriors picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 126, Heat 114

Moneyline

The biggest factor that could sway this game is Butler's status. He was a partial participant in Wednesday's practice, and he's truly a game-time decision. The Dubs are 9-6 at home this season, and the Heat are 9-6 on the road. The Heat haven't won in this building since 2020, though.

I'm going to take the Warriors, but the spread is more enticing than their -160 ML. I would consider taking STEPHEN CURRY UNDER 27.5 POINTS (-110). In 11 December games, he has eclipsed that total 5 times. He's averaging 27.9 PPG on the season, and this just seems like a little high of a number.

Against the spread

As mentioned, I like WARRIORS -3.5 (-110). They are just 5-9-1 ATS at home, but I have a feeling Butler is going to be absent or heavily limited. In winning 4 of the last 6 matchups, all of Golden State's victories have covered this spread.

Over/Under

Both teams are 6-4 O/U over the last 10 games. The Over has hit in 8 of 10 against one another. The Heat are actually the NBA leader with 39.5% shooting from 3-point range. They'll push the pace and keep the Warriors firing.

Take the OVER 228.5 (-110).

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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