New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills odds, picks and predictions

Drew Phelps | Staff Writer

The New England Patriots (4-11) face the Buffalo Bills (9-6) Sunday in Week 17 NFL action. Kickoff at Highmark Stadium is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Bills vs. Bills odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

After dropping 5 games in a row, the Patriots have now won 2 of their last 3 since making the switch to QB Bailey Zappe. New England won outright in Week 16 over the Denver Broncos, 26-23 as a 7-point underdog. The Pats also went Over the 37 total. Zappe threw for 256 yards and 2 TDs in the victory, one going to veteran RB Ezekiel Elliott. The Patriots are scoring a full touchdown more per game over their last 3 than their season average.

The Bills have collected 3 straight victories against 3 teams with winning records to get themselves right back in the AFC playoff picture. They narrowly escaped with a win over the Chargers in Los Angeles in Week 16, though, as K Tyler Bass hit a 29-yard field goal with 28 seconds remaining to secure the victory. QB Josh Allen accounted for all 3 of Buffalo's touchdowns. He connected 4 times with WR Gabe Davis for 130 yards and a score. They need to win their last 2-games to regain the AFC East crown.

The Patriots beat the Bills in New England, 29-25 on Oct. 22. They won the game outright as a 8.5-point underdog and the Over (41) hit.

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Patriots at Bills odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at Saturday at 1:50 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Patriots +625 (bet $100 to win $625) | Bills -1000 (bet $1,000 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Patriots +14 (-110) | Bills -14 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 40 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Patriots at Bills key injuries

Patriots

DL Christian Barmore (knee) questionable
S Kyle Dugger (illness) questionable
TE Hunter Henry (knee) questionable
LB Anfernee Jennings (knee) questionable
CB Jonathan Jones (knee) questionable
S Jabrill Peppers (hamstring) questionable
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (ankle) out
CB Shaun Wade (hip) questionable

Bills

DE A.J. Epenesa (rib) questionable
S Damar Hamlin (shoulder) questionable
DT DaQuan Jones (pectoral) questionable
WR Justin Short (hamstring) questionable

Patriots at Bills picks and predictions

Prediction

Bills 27, Patriots 17

Moneyline

AVOID.

The Bills will win their 4th straight game Sunday, but I'm not about to bet over 8 units to win 1. Keep your bets to the spread and total.

Against the spread

BET PATRIOTS +14 (-110).

The Patriots have covered the spread in 3 straight games since Zappe took over at quarterback. Two touchdowns is just too big of a number for a divisional game. New England has been more competitive, and I believe they'll do that again especially with that defense. The defense was keeping them in games despite Mac Jones playing terribly.

The Bills are 2-1-1 over their last 4 against the spread (ATS).

Over/Under

PASS.

My lean would be the Over, but I'm not confident enough to recommend making that bet. Both teams are scoring over 3 touchdowns per game over their last 3, and they went over in their first game this season but I'm wary.

Buffalo has held their opponents to 18 points per game for the season and even better over their last 3. The Bills have been Under in 6 of their last 8 games overall.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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