UCLA at Oregon odds, picks and predictions
The UCLA Bruins (6-6, 1-0 Pac-12) and Oregon Ducks (9-3, 1-0) tangle in a Saturday afternoon Pac-12 battle in Eugene. The opening tipoff at Matthew Knight Arena will be at 4 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the UCLA vs. Oregon odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
UCLA, which has won 3 straight against Oregon, snapped a 4-game slide Thursday when the Bruins tied a season-high with 9 three-pointers in a 69-62 triumph (covering a -6.5) over Oregon State. Although solid on defense, youthful UCLA has scuffled at the other end. The team's 67.8 points per game are a would-be program lowest since 2009-10.
The Ducks lost to Syracuse Dec. 17, but have bounced back with 2 solid wins (and covers since). Over its last 6 games, UO is 5-1 straight up and against the spread (ATS). A ball-hawking Ducks defense has forced 14.7 turnovers per game since Nov. 25.
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UCLA at Oregon odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: UCLA +260 (bet $100 to win $260) | Oregon -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): UCLA +7.5 (-115) | Oregon -7.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 136.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
UCLA at Oregon picks and predictions
Prediction
Oregon 65, UCLA 63
Moneyline
KenPom has a luck rating, which is the "deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their [sic] expected record." UCLA ranks 357th of 362 teams in that measure. So, yes, the Bruins are young and their offense has been off-kilter, but their indicators point to a better fate than a 6-6 mark.
Oregon is a quality team at both ends, solidly rated in both parts of the turnover exchange and adept at getting to the free-throw line. The Ducks also have a substantial home-court advantage. But they also have a dodgy free-throw percentage (68.2%), and maybe that figures prominently late in a close one.
But if the price were right, UCLA would be a clear choice here. PASS for now, but circle back for some partial-unit action if the return for the Bruins gets to +270 or more.
Against the spread
California-Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS across its last half-dozen Pac-12 games, and the Bruins have won 2 straight against the number in this series.
UCLA has been torched by its mid-range shooting percentage allowed (46.8% per BartTorvik), and that figures into some wonky luck so far. Overall, expected regression in shooting percentages on both sides swing toward the visitors. The Bruins have actually played top-100-type teams better, especially on defense, and they are a solid play with this cushion
FanDuel Sportsbook offers the best leverage here: BACK UCLA +7.5 (-110).
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Over/Under
The Under has cashed in 4 of the last 5 meetings in this series and in 4 of UCLA's last 5 road games. Since 1997, when UCLA gets 6.5-9 points as a road underdog, the Under has gone 19-8.
Again, the Bruins' defensive tendencies loom large here. Both teams work the defensive glass well, and we should not expect a high-volume turnover exchange. Look for a lot of 1s (free throws) but not a ton of 3s.
TAKE THE UNDER 136.5 (-110).
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