Fiesta Bowl: Liberty vs. Oregon odds, picks and predictions
The Liberty Flames (13-0) and Oregon Ducks (11-2) meet in the VRBO Fiesta Bowl on Monday. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Liberty vs. Oregon odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
This is the 1st-ever meeting between these schools on the gridiron.
Unbeaten Liberty gets its shot against a Power 5 opponent as the Group of 6 representative in a New Year's Day game. Liberty will be playing its 1st game this season against a ranked opponent, so it will be interesting to see how things go.
The Flames swept a 10-win New Mexico State team, including a 49-35 win in the Conference USA title game, and this team was 9-4 against the spread (ATS). Liberty ranked No. 1 in the nation, posting 302.9 rushing yards per game, while checking in 3rd with 514.9 total yards per game, and 5th with 40.8 PPG.
The Ducks are coming off a 34-31 loss in the Pac-12 Championship Game against playoff team Washington. The Ducks were 10-3 ATS this season, but just 2-2 ATS in the past 4 outings. The Under is 3-1 in the past 4 games for the Ducks, too. Out of conference, Oregon was 3-0 SU/ATS, with the Under going 2-1.
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Liberty vs. Oregon odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:46 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Liberty +625 (bet $100 to win $625) | Oregon -1000 (bet $1,000 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Liberty +17.5 (-110) | Oregon -17.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 67.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Liberty vs. Oregon picks and predictions
Prediction
Oregon 41, Liberty 27
Moneyline
Oregon (-1000) will cost you 10 times your potential return, and that's not a good bet, as either a standalone wager, or as a part of a multi-team parlay.
AVOID, and look to the spread instead.
Against the spread
This is the biggest game for LIBERTY +17.5 (-110), and it has the run game to hang with Oregon -17.5 (-110). Unfortunately for the Flames, they have a leaky pass defense which will have difficulty keeping the Ducks down. Liberty allowed 243.5 passing yards per game, and that will ultimately be Liberty's downfall, as they can't stop the pass.
The Flames were successful this season because they gashed teams on the ground, but this is a ranked, high-profile opponent, not Middle Tennessee or Old Dominion. Liberty will shoot its shot, and it will show well early on. But Oregon's QB Bo Nix should shine, and the Ducks will get the double-digit win in the end.
Over/Under
OVER 67.5 (-115) is the lean, but it should be super close, likely needing a late score to get the game across the finish line.
The Over cashed in the final 3 games for Liberty, with the total going high in 6 of the final 7 outings. This Liberty team scored 38 or more points in each of the final 7 games, but again, the strength of schedule likely helped.
Oregon hit the Under in 3 of the final 4 games, although the offense got loose for 31 or more points in all 13 games this season. The defense can be nasty at times, and it should hold Liberty under its season averages.
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