Miami Heat at Phoenix Suns odds, picks and predictions

Corey Scott | Staff Writer

The Miami Heat (20-14) and Phoenix Suns (18-16) meet Friday. Tip-off from Footprint Center is set for 9 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Heat vs. Suns odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Season series: First meeting; Miami won 2-0 last season

The Heat are coming off a cover as 5-point underdogs in a 110-96 win at the Los Angeles Lakers Wednesday as the Under (229) hit. G Tyler Herro had a team-high 21 points, and Miami outscored L.A. 38-29 in the 4th quarter. The Heat are 2-2 straight up and against the spread (ATS) on their current 5-game road trip.

The Suns failed to cover as 4-point home underdogs last time out in a 131-122 loss vs. the Los Angeles Clippers Wednesday as the Over (231) cashed. F Kevin Durant (hamstring) missed his 2nd straight game and is questionable for Friday. Wednesday's loss snapped a 4-game winning streak for the Suns, who were favored in all 4 victories.

These teams each covered once in last season's meetings, and the Over/Under went 1-1.

Heat at Suns odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:11 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Suns -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +3.5 (-105) | Suns -3.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 229.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Heat at Suns key injuries

Heat

F Jimmy Butler (foot) out
F Haywood Highsmith (concussion) out
F Caleb Martin (ankle) doubtful

Suns

F Kevin Durant (hamstring) questionable
G Eric Gordon (knee) questionable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Heat at Suns picks and predictions

Prediction

Suns 115, Heat 105

Moneyline

The Suns (-175) have won 4 straight games when closing as favorites. However, it's cheaper to lay the points while fading this shorthanded Heat team in its 5th straight road game.

PASS. Bet the spread and/or total instead.

Against the spread

Miami was somewhat lucky to win last time out and led by just 2 points with 10:46 remaining in the 4th quarter. The Heat needed L.A. to shoot 13% from beyond the arc in order to pull ahead late. Miami will be playing for the 7th time in 8 games without Butler, and it's unreasonable to expect role players like F Duncan Robinson and F Jaime Jaquez Jr. to get hot late and save it in back-to-back outings.

The Suns looked bad last time out, but that should be expected when the team with the 4th-best odds to win outright this season (+1100 at BetMGM Sportsbook) closes as a 4-point underdog at home.

G Bradley Beal was an uncharacteristic 7 of 20 from the field, including 0 for 6 on 3-pointers, but is trending in the right direction after scoring 20-plus points in a 3rd straight game for the 1st time this season. The Suns trailed by 19 at halftime, and Beal and G Devin Booker each picked up an early technical out of frustration -- they'll likely show better leadership skills this time around.

The Suns are the more talented team, and that is reflected in the line. Phoenix, led by Beal and Booker, should come out extra motivated, run up the score early and hold on to cover this short spread.

BET SUNS -3.5 (-115).

Over/Under

The Under has hit in 4 straight Heat games and has gone 8-4 this season when Miami is a road underdog.

The last time the Suns gave up 130 or more points, they bounced back defensively and held the Washington Wizards to just 108 in a 112-108 win Dec. 17, going under the total (246.5) by 26.5 points.

LEAN UNDER 229.5 (-105).

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