Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints odds, picks and predictions

Ethan Matthew | Staff Writer

The Atlanta Falcons (7-9) face the New Orleans Saints (8-8) Sunday. Kickoff from the Caesars Superdome is at 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Falcons vs. Saints odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

As the season ends, it's tough to see how either fanbase here will be happy about the result. The Saints had 1 of the easiest strength of schedules, and they sit at .500%. The Falcons have lost to the Washington Commanders, Carolina Panthers, Arizona Cardinals, and Tennessee Titans.

Most recently, the Falcons lost the Chicago Bears 37-17. Atlanta had no momentum thanks to 4 turnovers (all by INTs), and they gave up nearly 200 yards on the ground, which is a tough formula to counter.

The Saints beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-13, forcing 4 turnovers without giving up the ball, and 10 receivers recorded a catch for New Orleans. Sunday's game will be do or die for both teams, although if Tampa Bay beats Carolina, New Orleans' playoff odds drop dramatically.

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Falcons at Saints odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 1:15 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Falcons +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Saints -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Falcons +3.0 (-110) | Saints -3.0 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 42 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Falcons at Saints key injuries

Falcons

LB Troy Andersen (pectoral) out
C Drew Dalman (ankle) out
DE Zach Harrison (knee) questionable
QB Tayor Heinicke (ankle) questionable
S DeMarcco Hellams (concussion) out
CB Mike Hughes (concussion) questionable

Saints

DB J.T. Gray (illness) questionable
TE Juwan Johnson (chest) questionable
CB Lonnie Johnson Jr. (knee) out
RB Alvin Kamara (ankle) questionable
RB Kendre Miller (ankle) questionable
DT Khalen Saunders (concussion) questionable
DE Payton Turner (toe) questionable
T Landon Young (knee) out

Falcons at Saints picks and predictions

Prediction

Saints 16, Falcons 14

Moneyline

The home/away splits in this game are telling, Atlanta is just 2-5 on the road, while New Orleans is 4-2 when favored at home.

That being said, picking the Saints at -165 is a bit too juicy, especially given how they have played this season. I would PASS and look to the spread.

Against the spread

While the Saints may win, they are just 2-5 ATS at the Superdome and 2-4 ATS as home favorites. Also, the Falcons have the best ATS record in the NFC South when playing in division (3-2).

The Saints have only covered 2 games in a row once this season, and that was when they played the Panthers and Giants at home. I expect this game to be close, so I will take the points.

BET FALCONS +3 (-110).

Over/Under

Both teams trend towards the Under this season. The Saints are 11-5 to the Under (5-2 after a win), and the Falcons are 10-6 (6-2 after a loss). Saints QB Derek Carr and Falcons QBs Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke have struggled to create offense, so I trust the trends.

LEAN UNDER 42 (-110).

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