Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts odds, picks and predictions

Nathan Beighle | Staff Writer

The Indianapolis Colts (9-7) welcome the Houston Texans (9-7) to Lucas Oil Stadium Saturday with a playoff berth on the line. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook's lines around the Texans vs. Colts odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The winner clinches a playoff spot. The loser is eliminated. The winner also could claim the AFC South title if the Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7) lose or tie the Tennessee Titans (5-11) Sunday.

The Colts beat the visiting Las Vegas Raiders 23-20 in Week 17, failing to cover as 3.5-point favorites. Indianapolis is 9-7 against the spread (ATS) but just 1-3 ATS over its last 4 games. They are 4-4 ATS at home and have won 6 of their last 8 games. QB Gardner Minshew has thrown for 3,164 yards with 15 TDs and 9 picks through 16 games (12 starts).

The Texans beat the Titans 26-3 in Week 17, covering as 5.5-point home favorites. Houston has alternated wins and losses the last 7 weeks, going 4-3. It is 3-4 ATS over that span and 4-3 ATS on the road this season. The Texans are led by rookie QB C.J. Stroud, who has 3,844 passing yards with 21 TDs and 5 INTs through 14 starts.

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Texans at Colts odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:59 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Texans -118 (bet $118 to win $100) | Colts +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Texans -1.5 (-110) | Colts +1.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 47.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Texans at Colts key injuries

Texans

DL Will Anderson Jr. (ankle) questionable
FB Andrew Beck (calf) questionable
WR Noah Brown (back) out
DL Maliek Collins (hip) questionable
DL Jonathan Greenard (ankle) out
DL Sheldon Rankins (ankle) questionable
OL Laremy Tunsil (groin) questionable
WR Robert Woods (hip) questionable

Colts

C Ryan Kelly (ankle) questionable
G Quenton Nelson (ankle) questionable
CB Kenny Moore II (back) questionable
RB Zack Moss (forearm) questionable
OL Braden Smith (knee) questionable

Texans at Colts picks and predictions

Prediction

Colts 27, Texans 24

Moneyline

BET COLTS (+100).

The Colts have won 3 straight games at home. They also beat the Texans 31-20 as 1-point road underdogs in Week 2. With RB Jonathan Taylor back, Indianapolis has the talent and health to wear down the Texans.

Houston has lost 3 of its last 5 road games. The losses were to the Jets by 24, the Panthers by 2 and the Falcons by 2. Those are not good losses and suggest the Texans struggle away from home with their rookie QB.

Assume that trends continue and BACK COLTS (+100).

Against the spread

PASS.

The value here is on the moneyline at even-money. If you want the 1.5 points of insurance, I wouldn't blame you for betting Indy +1.5 (-110).

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 47.5 (-105).

The Colts have gone Over in 11 of 16 games, including in 5 of their last 6. They have scored 27 or more in 3 of their last 6 and have allowed 28 or more in 3 of their last 5. Either they play well offensively or poorly defensively, which has aided the Over and should continue.

The Texans are 6-10 O/U but are 2-2 O/U in their last 4, allowing 30 or more in 2 of their last 4. With a banged-up defense, expect Houston to allow points Saturday.

TAKE OVER 47.5 (-105).

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