NFL player props: 5 best bets for Week 18

John Holler | Staff Writer

In the final week of the regular season, making prop bets is much more difficult because veterans on teams that are out of contention may get fewer snaps as a precaution and teams locked into the playoffs have no incentive to play their key players.

Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 18 player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire's NFL expert picks and predictions.

For this week's picks, we take a couple of QBs to hit Under lofty yardage projections in must-win games, a pair of young emerging talents going Over their projections and an unheralded superstar WR hitting the end zone.

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NFL Week 18 prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 1:31 a.m. ET. All games Sunday and ET unless noted.

Steelers WR George Pickens OVER 45.5 receiving yards (-120)

- At Ravens, Saturday, 4:30 p.m. (ESPN)

This is a game where the Steelers (9-7) have everything to play for while the Ravens (13-3) have locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC and have no reason to risk injuries to their top players.

Over the last two weeks Pickens has been the pass offense in Pittsburgh, catching 11 passes for 326 yards and 2 TDs.

The Ravens have solid depth in the secondary, but likely aren't going to play their starters the entire game and all Pickens needs is one big downfield play to top this number.

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown SCORES A TOUCHDOWN (+125)

- Host Vikings, 1 p.m. (FOX)

St. Brown was a Pro Bowl snub despite catching 112 passes for 1,371 yards and 9 TDs. The Lions find motivation in such situations.

St. Brown has scored a TD in each of his last 3 games and 6 of his last 8 games for the playoff-bound Lions (11-5). That includes a meeting at the Vikings 2 weeks ago when the Lions top WR caught 12 passes for 106 yards and a TD in a 30-24 victory.

The Vikings (7-9) are beat up on both sides of the ball and will be missing 2 of their top 3 CBs. The Lions have an outside chance of landing the No. 2 seed in the NFC, so they will likely keep their starters in most of the game. If they do, it will be hard not to see St. Brown in the end zone.

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott UNDER 274.5 passing yards (-115)

- At Commanders, 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

This is a complicated bet because the Cowboys (11-5) can lock down the NFC's No. 2 seed with a win but need to be disciplined and potentially scoreboard watching.

The Commanders (4-12) have allowed 27 or more points in each of their last 7 games and, if the Cowboys get a 14-point lead, they will likely lean on the run. If they get up by 24, Prescott may spend the 4th quarter on the bench.

He's capable of surpassing this number every week, but Dallas wants to get out of Washington with a win and keep its players healthy because it has to play next week in the playoffs regardless of Sunday's outcome.

Falcons RB Bijan Robinson OVER 57.5 rushing yards (-115)

- At Saints, 1 p.m. (CBS)

Robinson has been playing hard late in the season. In his last 2 games, he has pushed way past this number, rushing for 72 yards against the Colts in Week 16 and 75 yards against the Bears in Week 17.

In his only game against the Saints, Robinson ran 16 times for 91 yards and a TD. In a key divisional matchup, the offense leaned on Robinson and will likely do the same again with its season on the line.

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 265.5 passing yards (-115)

- Host Bills, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

There are a lot of scenarios that could play out in the regular season's final game. A lot of those scenarios don't have Tagovailoa topping this number.

Tua has been under this number in 3 of the last 4 games and has been held under this O/U in 4 of his last 5 starts against the Bills.

There is a ton a stake in this game for both teams and, when it has a playoff feel, coaches tend to try to take the air out of the ball and sustain long drives. If Buffalo controls the tempo, it will be difficult for Tagovailoa to have a game pushing 300 yards. If the Bills can't stop Miami's run game, the Dolphins will stick to it.

There are just too many ways a game can play itself out that include Tagovailoa not having a monster game.

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