AFC Wild Card: Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans odds, picks and predictions

Kevin Erickson | Staff Writer

The Cleveland Browns (11-6) travel to meet the Houston Texans (10-7) in an AFC Wild Card game at NRG Stadium Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (NBC). Below, we look at Browns vs. Texans odds from BetMGM Sportsbook before making our expert NFL picks and predictions later in the week.

The Browns have more wins than the Texans, but Houston gets to host because it won the AFC South and Cleveland was runner-up to Baltimore (13-4) in the AFC North. One of the Browns' 11 victories came in Week 16 at Houston behind a 36-22 win as 3-point favorites in a game they led by 29 points (36-7) with 12:31 to go.

The Browns are favored in this one, too, the 1st time they're favored to win a playoff game since the 1994-95 season. Cleveland's last playoff appearance was in the 2020-21 season, winning 48-37 in the Wild Card round as a 5-point underdog at the Pittsburgh Steelers before losing 22-17 at the Kansas City Chiefs in a Divisional Round game, which it covered as a 7.5-point dog.

Led by rookie QB C.J. Stroud, the Texans improved by 7 victories from a season ago when they were 3-13-1. Houston finished the season 3-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in the final 4 games, with the lone loss and non-cover coming against the Browns in Week 16. The Under was 3-1 in that span, too, again with the exception being the Cleveland game.

Houston last appeared in the playoffs 4 seasons ago when it topped the Buffalo Bills 22-19 in OT, covering as a 2.5-point home favorite in the Wild Card round, before bowing out against the Chiefs in the Divisional Round 51-31 -- Kansas City was 10-point home favorite in that one. Houston is 2-4 SU and 2-4 ATS in its past 6 postseason appearances.

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Browns at Texans odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 11:48 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Browns -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Texans +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Against the spread: Browns -2 (-110) | Texans +2 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 44.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Browns at Texans key injuries

Browns

CB Mike Ford Jr. (calf) questionable
S Grant Delpit (groin) out
K Dustin Hopkins (hamstring) out
RB Pierre Strong Jr. (back) questionable
S Juan Thornhill (calf) questionable
WR Cedric Tillman (concussion) out
CB Denzel Ward Jr. (knee) questionable

Texans

DE Will Anderson Jr. (ankle) questionable
FB Andrew Beck (calf) questionable
WR Noah Brown (back) questionable
DT Maliek Collins (hip) questionable
DE Jonathan Greenard (ankle) questionable
DE Jerry Hughes (ankle) out
DT Sheldon Rankins (shoulder) questionable
WR Robert Woods (hip) questionable

Browns at Texans picks and predictions

Prediction

Browns 26, Texans 22

Moneyline

The BROWNS (-130) aren't a bad play if you don't want to lay the 2 points. However, unless you're convinced Cleveland will only win by a single point, it's cheaper to go with the spread if you like the Browns.

Against the spread

CLEVELAND -2 (-110) is a strong play. These teams just met in Week 16, and the Browns won in convincing fashion. Of course, while it's not unrealistic to believe QB Joe Flacco could have another strong day, WR Amari Cooper set a single-game franchise record with 265 receiving yardage in that victory. That's likely not going to happen, or even come close. The Texans are sure to make adjustments.

Still, Cleveland won and covered the final 4 games Flacco started, and he went over 300 passing yards in each of those games. We'll roll with postseason experience over Stroud, who is making his 1st playoff appearance.

Over/Under

OVER 44.5 (-110) is worth a look as these teams combined for 58 points in the Week 16 matchup.

Cleveland cashed the Over in the final 3 regular-season games, while going 6-1 in the previous 7 outings. So, the Over is a strong play as far as it is concerned.

Houston saw the total go low in 3 of its final 4 games, but again, that lone Over was the game against Cleveland at NRG Stadium in Week 16.

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