AFC Wild Card: Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs odds, picks and predictions

Payton Shanks | Staff Writer

The Miami Dolphins (11-6) and Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) meet Saturday in an AFC Wild Card battle. Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is set for 8 p.m. ET (Peacock). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Dolphins vs. Chiefs odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

Miami was bumped from the AFC 2 seed down to the 6 seed thanks to a 21-14 loss to the Buffalo Bills Sunday as the Dolphins failed to cover as 2.5-point underdogs. Miami has failed to cover against the spread (ATS) in back-to-back games and has failed to top 20 points in both games.

Kansas City picked up a 13-12 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers Sunday while covering as a 3-point underdog. Many of KC's starters sat with the Chiefs locked into the 3 seed. The Chiefs defense has held opponents to less than 18 points in back-to-back games.

The Chiefs beat the Dolphins 21-14 in Week 9 in an international game in Germany.

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Dolphins at Chiefs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 1:57 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Dolphins +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Chiefs -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Dolphins +4.5 (-110) | Chiefs -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 44 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Dolphin at Chiefs key injuries

Dolphins

S DeShon Elliott (calf) questionable
S Jevon Holland (knee) questionable
CB Xavien Howard (foot) out
RB Raheem Mostert (knee/ankle) questionable
WR Jaylen Waddle (ankle) questionable

Chiefs

S Bryan Cook (ankle) questionable
WR Sky Moore (knee) questionable
OT Wanya Morris (concussion) out
WR Justyn Ross (hamstring) questionable
WR Kadarius Toney (hip/ankle) questionable

Dolphins at Chiefs picks and predictions

Prediction

Chiefs 23, Dolphins 20

Moneyline

PASS.

I like Kansas City to win here, but a -225 favorite is just slightly too heavy to risk betting on. Bet on the spread and/or total instead.

Against the spread

LEAN DOLPHINS +4.5 (-110).

The weather forecast has Saturday's game being frigid and windy, meaning that throwing the ball will be very difficult. Both teams have very solid run games, but Miami's is slightly better than Kansas City's, so that edge will help the Dolphins cover here. The Chiefs have covered ATS in back-to-back outings while the Dolphins have dropped back-to-back games ATS.

While I do like Miami to cover, I still expect KC to win as the Chiefs are more proven and experienced in clutch playoff scenarios.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 44 (-110).

The Under has hit in 3 of Miami's last 4 overall and has hit in 4 consecutive games for the Chiefs. The Under is also 12-5 for the Chiefs this season and is 4-1 in their last 5 overall. The Under has also hit in 2 of the last 3 Miami-KC matchups.

Miami's defense is injury-riddled, but Kansas City's lack of talent at the WR position combined with the weather will make it hard for that weakness to be truly exposed.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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