NFL Wild Card Weekend parlay: Let's make some money

Kevin Erickson | Staff Writer

We're heading into the NFL postseason, and we have 6 games on the schedule for NFL Wild Card Weekend. Weather is going to play a huge factor, which is something we'll be watching awfully close as it affects our plays.

Saturday's K.C. outlook -- when the Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) host the Miami Dolphins (11-6) -- calls for 0 degrees with winds at 13-16 MPH. The good news is that there is no precipitation in the forecast.

The same cannot be said for Orchard Park, N.Y., where the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) visit the Buffalo Bills (11-6) Monday -- the game was originally scheduled for Sunday but moved because of the weather. This season, the Under cashed at a 14-2-1 rate in games played with an average wind speed of 13 MPH or greater.

Wrapping up the schedule Monday, rain is expected in Tampa. There is a 70% chance of the wet stuff, but at least temperatures will be in the upper 60's with a 6-8 MPH.

After looking at FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL Wild Card Weekend odds, here is our "Let's make some money" NFL parlay bet to cash in on among SportbookWire's NFL expert picks and predictions.

We have 3 rematches from the regular season, too. In fact, the Cleveland Browns (11-6) and Houston Texans (10-7) just met in Week 16 at NRG Stadium in Houston with the Browns winning 36-22 as 3-point favorites with the Over (40) easily connecting.

The Dolphins and Chiefs probably wish they could go back to Frankfurt, Germany, and play, instead of being in a refrigerator this weekend. Kansas City earned a 21-14 win over Miami in Germany back in Week 9, covering as a 1-point underdog as the Under (51.5) cashed.

Lastly, the Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) met for Monday Night Football in Tampa back in Week 3. Philadelphia came away with a 25-11 win and cover as a 5.5-point favorite as the Under (44) hit. That was a while ago, and Philly was playing much better football. They meet again in Tampa this Monday for the final game of the Wild Card round.

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NFL Wild Card Weekend: Let's make some money parlay

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 1:47 p.m. ET. All games ET.

Leg 1: DOLPHINS +4.5 (-105) at Chiefs – Saturday, 8 p.m. (Peacock)

There is a lot being made out of geography ahead of this game. Obviously, the Dolphins play in tropical conditions more often than not, rarely having to deal with low temperatures.

We're not likely going to see Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa spinning it frequently. Expect both teams to count on the run. Both of the Dolphins RBs, Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane, are capable of housing it, while the Chiefs counter with RB Isiah Pacheco. With their physical styles, all 3 should be tough to tackle on a frigid afternoon.

The combination of Mostert and Achane will wear down the defending champs, helping the warm-weather Dolphins keep it close and cover.

Plus, the public drove this number up quite a bit, from an open of 1.5, and I never like siding with the public.

Leg 2: COWBOYS -7 (-110) vs. Packers – Sunday, 4:30 p.m. (FOX)

The Packers (9-8) head into Jerry World , and it could be considered the Mike McCarthy revenge game. The Dallas coach will get a crack at his former employer, and while the personnel has mostly changed, the logo on the helmet remains the same.

More importantly, though, the Packers barely made the playoffs, while the Cowboys (12-5) caught fire at the end of the season, blew past the Eagles and rolled to the NFC East title. The Cowboys scored 33 or more points in 6 of the final 9 games as QB Dak Prescott had the offense humming.

The Packers won 3 games down the stretch, but all of those victories came against non-playoff teams. Wins are wins, and Green Bay qualified for the playoffs, but they're not likely going to be around very long. Green Bay was just 2-5 ATS in its final 7 road games, while Dallas went 6-2 ATS in 8 games this season at home.

Leg 3: Steelers at Bills UNDER 36.5 (-110) – Monday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

Editor's note: This game was moved from Sunday to Monday. Check the weather forecast as the below was written for a Sunday kickoff.

The weather is going to be absolutely atrocious. If you love a good snow game, then you are going to love the weather at Highmark Stadium Sunday.

The forecast calls for temperatures around 20 degrees with a 60 percent or greater chance of snow throughout the game. If that wasn't enough, they're calling for winds whipping off of Lake Erie anywhere from 22-26 MPH with gusts to gale force.

We're unlikely to see much in the way of passing as Steelers QB Mason Rudolph and Bills QB Josh Allen would do well to keep it on the ground. Allen and the Bills will have a leg up as he can tuck it and go. Buffalo RB James Cook is likely to see a strong workload, too.

In addition to the passing games being hindered, the kicking game will be affected, too. Think back to Dec. 6, 2021, when the Bills hosted the New England Patriots on a Monday night, and we had snow and ice with heavy winds crushing the pass and kick games. In fact, field-goal attempts were downright comical. We're going to get one of those kind of games, and points are going to be at a premium.

Parlay payout: Bet $10 to profit $61.16 (payout = $71.16).

Try out the Paste BN Parlay Calculator.

Leg 4-*: BROWNS -2.5 (-110) at Texans – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. (NBC)

*-If you want to add a 4th play to this parlay.

The Browns and Texans kick off the Wild Card round in H-Town, and as mentioned, these teams are familiar with each other. Cleveland fired out to a 22-7 lead by halftime in their 1st meeting and led 36-7 with 12:31 to go, before settling for the 36-22 victory.

Don't expect the same type of high-scoring game, but the winning result should be the same.

The Browns finished with 418 total yards of offense in that 1st meeting with QB Joe Flacco throwing for 368 yards, and WR Amari Cooper setting a single-game franchise record with 265 receiving yards on 11 catches with 2 TDs. It's safe to say Cooper won't have anywhere near that production -- if he even plays at all. He has been sidelined with a heel injury.

The matchup features Houston rookie QB C.J. Stroud against the former Super Bowl MVP Flacco. Experience will be a huge difference. Flacco has been the consummate professional since landing in Cleveland, and he and the starters are well-rested after basically a week off. Nearly all starters sat in Week 18 at Cincinnati with the team locked into the AFC's No. 5 seed. So the bumps and bruises are mended, and this Browns team is ready to roll.

Parlay payout: Bet $10 to profit $125.85 (payout = $135.85).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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