NFL Divisional Round parlay: Let's make some money

Kevin Erickson | Staff Writer

After a rather crazy NFL Wild Card Weekend, which included moving the Pittsburgh Steelers-Buffalo Bills from Sunday to Monday due to heavy snow in western New York, we're on to the NFL Divisional Round of the playoffs.

Four underdogs covered the spread with 3 winning outright -- Houston Texans (11-7), Green Bay Packers (10-8) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-8), and 5 of the 6 games were decided by 14 or more points.

This weekend, we'll also get our 1st look at the Baltimore Ravens (13-4) and San Francisco 49ers (12-5) as the top seeds enjoyed byes in the opening round.

The weather forecast is slightly better this weekend. In Baltimore, it will be bone-chilling cold Saturday afternoon for the Ravens-Texans matchup and with temperatures in the upper 20's and sustained winds from 14-17 MPH, with gusts to 20-25 MPH. But there no call for precipitation. Still, the passing and kicking games should be affected.

In Santa Clara, we'll have a sloppy field when the 49ers host the Packers with a coastal low pressure system tracking inland from the Pacific Ocean expected to bring a steady amount of rain, while winds blow at 8-11 MPH.

On Sunday, the Buccaneers and Detroit Lions (13-5) will be indoors, safe from the elements.

In Orchard Park, N.Y., the Bills (12-6) host the Kansas City Chiefs (12-6). Snow won't be an issue, at least during gametime, but we'll have helmet-cracking temperatures in the low 20's with a wind chill in the single digits.

After looking at FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL Divisional Round odds, here is our "Let's make some money" NFL parlay bet to cash in on among SportbookWire's NFL expert picks and predictions.

Texans at Ravens is a rematch going back to Week 1, which saw Baltimore win at home 25-9 and welcome Houston QB C.J. Stroud to the NFL. Baltimore cashed as the 9.5-point favorite as the Under (43.5) connected.

The Packers meet the 49ers for the 1st time since Jan. 22, 2022, which was a Divisional Round game in Lambeau Field. The 49ers won 13-10 as 6-point underdogs and the Under (47.5) easily hit. The Over has cashed in 3 of the past 4 head-to-head meetings, but this will be San Francisco's 1st time seeing QB Jordan Love under center, while Green Bay faces QB Brock Purdy and RB Christian McCaffrey for the 1st time, so most trends are out the window.

Sunday's Buccaneers-Lions game is also a rematch. The Lions handled the Bucs 20-6 in Tampa in Week 5, covering as 3-point favorites with the Under (44) cashing.

To close the weekend, the Chiefs and Bills renew their rivalry. These 2 faced each other in Kansas City 5 times since a January 2021 playoff game and Buffalo won 3 of the past 4 with Buffalo winning and covering 3 of the past 4. This game marks QB Patrick Mahomes' 1st career playoff road start.

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NFL Divisional Round: Let's make some money parlay

Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 8:40 a.m. ET. All games ET.

Leg 1: PACKERS +9.5 (-108) at 49ers – Saturday, 8:15 p.m. (FOX)

The Packers were impressive in their Wild Card road victory, absolutely dismantling the host Dallas Cowboys 48-32. Green Bay covered as a 7-point underdog and nearly took care of the Over (51.5) all on its own.

The assignment gets a lot tougher for as Love's 2nd-career postseason start comes against the top-seeded 49ers. While San Francisco was amazing most of the season, there are still some questions with this team.

McCaffrey missed some time with a calf injury at the end of the regular season, although he looks to be a full go for Saturday. Purdy looked MVP caliber at times this season, but also looked like Mr. Irrelevant for a couple of stretches. Can he take the 49ers to the Super Bowl?

It's tough not to 'love' what the Packers' Jordan did under center at the Cowboys last week, and 9.5 is an awful lot of points. If this Green Bay team plays like it did in Dallas, it will not only cover, but it could win outright.

Leg 2: LIONS -6.5 (-108) vs. Buccaneers – Sunday, 3 p.m. (NBC)

The Bucs travel to face the Lions in the cozy, warm confines of Ford Field. I actually saw these teams play in an uncharacteristically very cold Wild Card playoff game at the old Tampa Stadium Dec. 28, 1997 with QB Scott Mitchell under center for the Honolulu Blue and Silver. It didn't end well for the Lions that day -- they lost 20-10 after giving up the 1st 20 points. It will go better here.

The Lions got out the jitters in a 24-23 narrow escape at home against the upstart Los Angeles Rams (10-8) last week, facing former QB Matthew Stafford in his old stomping grounds. It was an emotional contest as the Lions won a playoff game for the 1st time since Jan. 5, 1992. The Lions didn't cover as 3-point favorites and the Under (53) came in. Detroit now hosts a 2nd playoff game in the same season for the 1st time since 1957. These crazy Lions are in uncharted territory.

The Bucs, who were 3-point underdogs, curb-stomped the Philadelphia Eagles (11-7) last week 32-9 -- the O/U line was 43. The win avenged an early-season loss to Philly at the RayJay.

Now, Tampa must exact revenge against Detroit, but the game takes place on the road. It's going to be a difficult assignment in a very hostile place. The Lions didn't even play their best game last week and managed a win. Detroit might win this one by double digits like the 1st meeting, but try and get this line before it gets to a flat 7, and certainly before it gets to 7 and a hook.

Leg 3: BILLS -2.5 (-122) vs. Chiefs – Sunday, 6:30 p.m (CBS)

The Bills are going to have more wild weather in the area this week, affecting practice and local travel for the team and staff. But the game itself should be just fine Sunday this time around, albeit with cold, gusty winds and bone-chilling temperatures.

Buffalo got the job done 31-17 against the Steelers (10-8) last weekend, covering a 10-point number as the Over (39.5) connected. That probably wouldn't have been the case in knee-high snow, if the game were played in its regularly-scheduled time, so unfortunately we took an 'L' on our predictions last week with the piece written before the postponement.

The last time these teams met was in Kansas City in Week 14 with Buffalo hanging on for a thrilling 20-17 victory as a 1-point underdog. You might remember the wild TE Travis Kelce hook and ladder play with WR Kadarius Toney, only to get called back because the officials ruled the receiver was lined up in the neutral zone.

As a result of that gaffe by the wideout, the Bills get the Chiefs at home in this one, the 1st time in 6 meetings. The Bills didn't seem to mind going to Arrowhead, winning 3 of the past 4 meetings with the lone loss a 42-36 OT setback in the infamous 13 seconds game, and QB Josh Allen's errant OT coin flip decision, giving the Chiefs the ball 1st. The Bills never saw the ball in the extra session, you might remember?

Anyway, let's fast-forward to this Sunday. The Bills have had a handle on the Chiefs pretty well lately, and this is easily the most beatable we've seen Kansas City in years. Buffalo ironed some things out down the stretch, and looked really good Monday vs. Pittsburgh. I expect the home team to feed off the energy of Bills Mafia and dethrone the defending champs.

Parlay payout: Bet $10 to profit $57.50 (payout = $67.50).

Try out the Paste BN Parlay Calculator.

Leg 4-*: RAVENS -9.5 (-110) vs. Texans – Saturday, 4:30 p.m. (ESPN/ABC)

*-If you want to add a 4th play to this parlay.

I actually have the worst feel on this game more so than any of the others.

Stroud looked "really" good last week, and so did the Houston defense, in the 45-14 throttling of the Cleveland Browns (11-7). When the rookie QB and the Texans faced the Ravens in Week 1, it was just that ... Week 1. Stroud had jitters as it was his 1st NFL game, and it was the 1st game for coach DeMeco Ryans, too.

However, the Ravens are well-rested. Some might argue too rested, which is why the public is flocking to the Texans (+9.5) at nearly a 2-to-1 clip.

But the money should be on the home side. Baltimore spanked Miami 56-19 in Week 17 in the most recent full home game with regulars. It spanked San Francisco on the road Christmas night 33-19. It spanked Jacksonville 23-7 on the road in Week 15. The Ravens also beat another playoff team in the Rams 37-31 in OT in Week 14. Plus, the Ravens tattooed the Lions 38-6 in Week 7.

M&T Bank Stadium is not an easy place to play for visitors, and the Texans will find that out, a 2nd time this season, although I expect a much better effort. The result in the win column, and ATS column, will be the same, however.

Parlay payout: Bet $10 to profit $118.85 (payout = $128.85).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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