NFL player props: 5 best bets for Divisional Round

John Holler | Staff Writer

It can be argued that the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is the most exciting 2 days in sports. Six teams have earned their way to these games and the teams with the best record in both conferences are rested and 2 home wins away from the Super Bowl. This is where legends are made for some, and dreams die for others.

For this week's picks, we're taking nothing but elite players, including the presumptive league MVP showing what he can do, the best RB topping a high yardage number, one WR with an unreasonably high reception total, a Pro Bowl regular with a yardage number too low and Taylor Swift's boyfriend finding the end zone.

Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Divisional Round player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire's NFL expert picks and predictions.

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NFL Divisional Round prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 10:22 p.m. ET. All games ET.

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson OVER 52.5 rushing yards (-115)

- Host Texans (11-7), Saturday 4:30 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)

In 4 career playoff games, Jackson has rushed for 367 yards -- an average of 91.8 yards a game for Baltimore (13-4).

The only blemish on Jackson's career to date is a 1-3 record in the playoffs. He takes that personally and will likely take off from the pocket more than usual to secure a win for his team against the upstart Texans.

Jackson has averaged 13.5 carries a game in the playoffs and, if he gets anywhere close to that many attempts, it will be difficult to keep him from blowing past this number.

49ers RB Christian McCaffrey OVER 92.5 rushing yards (-115)

- Host Packers (10-8), Saturday 8:15 p.m.

The 49ers (12-5) leaned on McCaffrey down the stretch to lock down the NFC's No. 1 seed and he responded in a big way.

McCaffrey has rushed for 93 or more yards in 5 or his last 6 games and the 49ers offense relies on him to give the offense balance and crowd the box to open up the deep pass game.

There are too many likely scenarios that will have the 49ers ahead against the young Packers and trying to close out the win in the second half. McCaffrey should get 15-20 carries and, while this is a high yardage number, it's one he has proved in San Francisco's stretch run that is well within his capability.

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown UNDER 7.5 receptions (-120)

- Host Buccaneers (10-8), Sunday 3 p.m. (NBC)

St. Brown is an elite receiver for Detroit (13-5) but needing to catch 8 passes to win an Over bet is asking too much of any receiver.

Brown has been the most prolific receiver in Detroit since Calvin (Megatron) Johnson, but this number has proved elusive even for him. In St. Brown's last 7 games, he has caught 8 or more passes just once, despite having 90 or more yards in each of his last 5 games -- including 7 catches for 110 yards against the Los Angeles Rams last week.

The only way this number makes sense to bet Over is if it becomes a back-and-forth shootout. If the Lions get an early lead, risk-taking coach Dan Campbell will likely change course and run the combination of RBs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs 35 times or more. If that happens, it will eat up huge chunks of game clock and take the ball away from St. Brown. He may catch 6 or 7, but 8 is too many to bet on.

Bills WR Stefon Diggs OVER 62.5 receiving yards (-115)

- Host Chiefs (12-6), Sunday 6:30 p.m. (CBS)

Diggs has been hit-and-miss for the Bills (12-6) against the Chiefs in his career, going Over this number 3 times and Under it 3 times -- by a lot in most instances.

He has been Under this number in 5 of his last 6 games, but the Bills are going to be at home against the Chiefs for the first time in their last 6 meetings. Diggs will be lobbying QB Josh Allen and the coaching staff to get him the ball and with WR Gabe Davis out, Allen may have to force the ball to Diggs more often.

The key for Diggs is his consistent production. He has caught 4 or more passes in 17 of 18 games this season and, while he didn't top this number in their meeting vs. K.C. in the regular season, he was targeted 11 times.

If Diggs gets double-digit targets, you can fully expect 6 or 7 receptions, which should be more than enough to beat this number.

Chiefs TE Travis Kelce SCORES A TOUCHDOWN (+125)

- At Bills, Sunday 6:30 p.m. (CBS)

Kelce didn't score a TD last week, which for him in the playoffs has been almost unheard of.

His lack of a touchdown last week snapped a 6-game streak of scoring, and his consistency has been like few others in playoff history.

He has scored 14 touchdowns in his last 13 postseason games and has 11 games with a TD in his last 15 in the playoffs. He is the focus of the pass offense -- he has caught 6 or more passes in 11 of his last 13 games and, if he gets single coverage anywhere inside the 30-yard line, he is liable to break it off for a touchdown.

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