AFC Divisional Round: Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills odds, picks and predictions

Chris Cichon | Staff Writer

The Kansas City Chiefs (12-6) look to advance to their 6th straight AFC Championship game as they take on the Buffalo Bills (12-6) at 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook's lines around the Chiefs vs. Bills odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

QB Patrick Mahomes will make his 1st-ever road playoff start as he looks to avenge his team's 20-17 loss to Buffalo on Dec. 10. The Bills have rolled off 6 straight wins, including last Monday's victory over Pittsburgh at home in the Wild Card round. In that matchup vs. the Steelers, Buffalo cashed as a 10-point favorite with the Over 39.5 cashing.

The Chiefs are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games played, easily covering (-4.5) at Arrowhead Stadium in their 26-7 Wild Card victory over the Miami Dolphins. Kansas City has played to the Under in 4 straight games.

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Chiefs at Bills odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:31 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Chiefs +128 (bet $100 to win $128) | Bills -152 (bet $152 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Chiefs +2.5 (+100) | Bills -2.5 (-122)
Over/Under (O/U): 45.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Chiefs at Bills key injuries

Chiefs

DT Derrick Nnadi (triceps) out
WR Justyn Ross (hamstring) questionable
WR Kadarius Toney (hip) questionable

Bills

CB Christian Benford (knee) out
WR Gabe Davis (knee) out
S Taylor Rapp (calf) out
LB Baylon Spector (back) out

Chiefs at Bills picks and predictions

Prediction

Bills 21, Chiefs 20

Moneyline

BET BILLS -152.

The last 2 meetings between these AFC powerhouses both came down to the wire and I would anticipate a similar finish Sunday in Orchard Park. The Bills offense is averaging nearly 26 points during their winning streak, and I expect QB Josh Allen to be efficient with his legs and perhaps even score the game-winning TD on the ground.

Against the spread

PASS.

The Chiefs are the defending Super Bowl champions and just dominated the Miami Dolphins, albeit at home. Mahomes has been spectacular ATS as an underdog in his career, so I would rather just root for a Buffalo W and not sweat the point spread.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 45.5.

Playing an Under in a game featuring Mahomes and Allen does not feel comfortable, but both teams feature solid pass defenses and weather could be a factor. Kansas City allowed the 3rd-lowest yards per pass in the NFL (9.9 yards) with Buffalo right behind them at No. 4 (10.1).

KC also was No.1 in sack % (9.3) and I foresee DT Chris Jones and DE George Karlaftis, who had 5 combined QB hits in the December matchup, to put a lot of pressure on Allen once again.

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