AFC Championship Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens odds, picks and predictions

Kevin Erickson | Staff Writer

The Kansas City Chiefs (13-6) and Baltimore Ravens (14-4) will battle Sunday for the AFC Championship Game at M&T Bank Stadium. Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we look at Chiefs vs. Ravens odds from BetMGM Sportsbook before making our expert NFL picks and predictions later in the week.

The Chiefs picked up a 27-24 win and cover as 2.5-point underdogs in an AFC Divisional Round game last week against the Buffalo Bills. It was the 1st-career road playoff win for QB Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs have covered both postseason games this season, while splitting the Over-Under.

The Ravens had a bye Wild Card Weekend but did not look rusty after resting their starters since Week 17. Baltimore posted an emphatic 34-10 win at home last week over the Houston Texans, easily covering a 10-point number while the total (44) pushed at most shops.

These teams haven't met since Sept. 19, 2021, when the Ravens outlasted the Chiefs 36-35 in Baltimore, with the home side earning the cover as 3.5-point underdogs and the Over (53) coming through. The total has gone Over in 4 of the previous 5 meetings in the series, and the underdog has cashed in 3 of the past 4 outings.

There is a quirky betting trend worth noting, too. The last 4 teams to eliminate the Bills and QB Josh Allen in a playoff game are 0-4 straight up in the next game. This trend benefitted the Chiefs last season as they ousted the QB Joe Burrow and Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game the weekend after Cincinnati showed Allen and the Bills the door. Will the Chiefs break this strange trend?

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Chiefs at Ravens odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 8:53 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Chiefs +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Ravens -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Chiefs +4 (-110) | Ravens -4 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 44.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Chiefs at Ravens key injuries

Chiefs

S Mike Edwards (concussion) questionable
LB Willie Gay Jr. (neck) questionable
WR Skyy Moore (knee) out
DL Derrick Nnadi (triceps) out
RB Isiah Pacheco (ankle, toe) questionable
OL Prince Tega Wanogho (quadriceps) out
OL Joe Thuney (pectoral) out
WR Kadarius Toney (hip) questionable

Ravens

CB Marlon Humphrey (calf) questionable
LB Del'Shawn Phillips (shoulder) doubtful
WR Tylan Wallace (knee) questionable
CB Rock Ya-Sin (knee) questionable

Chiefs at Ravens picks and predictions

Prediction

Ravens 27, Chiefs 21

Moneyline

The Ravens (-210) are just a little too expensive for my liking, costing slightly more than 2 times the potential return. Betting such heavy favorites isn't a great idea. Perhaps if you were to tie this into a multi-team, cross-sport parlay, I could live with this, but as a standalone wager, no way.

PASS.

Against the spread

BALTIMORE -4 (-110) is the lean, but go with a HALF-UNIT play at most. Kansas City has that championship pedigree, but there is just too much going against it.

That Allen trend, not withstanding, there are bigger issues going against the Chiefs. I don't like that fact Pacheco carries a questionable tag. He has been one of the more exciting players on offense for the Chiefs, and if he is limited or unable to go, Kansas City has virtually no chance. Thuney being banged up is a problem, too, while Edwards and Gay would be huge misses on defense if their 50-50 questionable tag turns to inactive status.

To beat the champs will be tough as Kansas City is a proud team with plenty of playoff experience. But this team feels different this season, perhaps not as dominant. This Ravens team feels different, too, and after many disappointing performances, it appears to be their time.

Over/Under

OVER 44.5 (-110) is a solid play.

The weather forecast calls for a 70 percent chance of light rain with winds 8-11 MPH. It's much better than the weather both of these teams faced in their previous playoff game, but a slick surface might mean more of a ground-based attack, and less passing. Still, Jackson can make amazing things happen with his feet, and Mahomes should be able to negotiate the weather conditions with aplomb.

The Over has hit at a 4-0-1 pace in the past 5 home games for the Ravens when they're not resting starters, and the Over is 4-1 in the past 5 meetings with the Chiefs.

We might not have a shootout, but don't expect a defensive slog, either.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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