NFL player props: 5 best bets for NFL Championship Games

John Holler | Staff Writer

Only 4 teams remain in the hunt to win the Super Bowl, and we've identified 5 prop bets that involve players that will be critical to the success of those in the final 4.

Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Championship Games player prop bets to cash in on among SportbookWire's NFL expert picks and predictions.

This week's picks include a pair of tight ends in the NFC Championship Game, a pair of running backs being counted on by their respective teams, and the best quarterback in the game trying to get the opportunity to win back-to-back titles.

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NFL Championship Games prop bet picks and predictions

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 2 p.m. ET. All games Sunday and ET unless noted.

Lions TE Sam LaPorta SCORES A TOUCHDOWN (+140)

- At 49ers, 3 p.m. (FOX)

LaPorta has put together 1 of the best rookie seasons for a tight end in league history. In the regular season, he caught 86 passes for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns and has added 12 catches for 79 yards and a TD in 2 postseason games.

LaPorta has been the primary target for QB Jared Goff in the red zone, catching 8 of his 10 touchdowns in close.

The Lions will need to throw to compete with the 49ers, and when they get near the end zone, LaPorta will be the 1st option when Goff puts the ball in the air.

Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco UNDER 63.5 rushing yards (-105)

- At Ravens, 3 p.m. (CBS)

Pacheco has had a huge workload on the ground in the playoffs, rushing 39 times for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, while the Dolphins and Bills put their defensive focus on stopping QB Patrick Mahomes, the Ravens know that in order to beat Kansas City, flooding the box to stop Pacheco is the top priority.

Pacheco missed practice Wednesday and Thursday and is questionable with a toe injury. While there is little doubt he will play through the pain, the Chiefs need to have alternate options in place.

The primary reason for taking Under on this line is the combination of Pacheco at less than 100 percent and OL Joe Thuney being ruled out. Thuney is the most dominant linemen vs. the run for the Chiefs and his loss will be huge. The Ravens are going to be in attack mode and allowed the Texans just 2.7 yards per rush last week.

Pacheco may need more than 15 carries to hit this number and too many things point against it.

Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 48.5 rushing yards (-120)

- At 49ers, 6:30 p.m. (FOX)

Gibbs has largely played 2nd fiddle to RB David Montgomery most of the season, but his talent has been hard to deny. He has averaged 2 more yards per carry than Montgomery in the playoffs (5.8 to 3.8 yards) and has earned getting the ball more often because of his big-play ability.

The 49ers defense got gashed last week by the Packers, giving up 138 yards on 28 carries. Much of that came on a couple of big runs by RB Aaron Jones. Montgomery is good, but Gibbs can turn what would be a 10-yard run for Montgomery into a 50-yard house call.

All Gibbs may need is 10 carries to hit this number -- less if he hits a splash play along the way.

49ers TE George Kittle UNDER 61.5 receiving yards (-115)

- Host Lions, 6:30 p.m. (FOX)

The 49ers tend to not double-down on making Kittle a focus of the pass offense in consecutive games. The hottest streak Kittle had during the season included 2 losses in their 3-game losing streak and a loss to the Ravens.

The 49ers don't expect to be in that position against the Lions. QB Brock Purdy is going to spread the ball, and given his yards per catch, Kittle may need 5 receptions to surpass this number. That may be asking too much, especially if the Niners get an early lead and run RB Christian McCaffrey 20-25 times.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes OVER 1.5 touchdown passes (-120)

- At Ravens, 3 p.m. (CBS)

Mahomes hasn't thrown more than 2 touchdown passes in his last 11 games but has thrown 2 TDs in 5 of 8 road games this season. But, what makes this bet intriguing is his personal history with the Ravens.

In 4 career games against the Ravens, Mahomes has thrown for 1,479 yards and 12 touchdowns -- never throwing for fewer than 348 yards or 2 touchdowns. In his 2 road games in Baltimore, he has thrown 7 touchdowns.

The Chiefs have morphed into a much more balanced offense, but there are too many scenarios in which Mahomes is putting the ball up a lot and taking shots at the end zone. If the Ravens can keep him out, power to them. But history says, even if he loses, Mahomes will get his stat line.

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