New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs odds, picks and predictions
The New York Islanders (20-17-12) travel to meet the Toronto Maple Leafs (25-14-8) on Monday. Puck drop at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Islanders vs. Maple Leafs odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
The Islanders suffered a 3-2 overtime loss at home against the Florida Panthers prior to the All-Star break on Jan. 27. New York limped into the hiatus with an 0-2-1 mark, while totaling 3 or fewer goals in 8 straight games. The Under is on a 5-2-1 run for the Isles.
The good news for New York is that top overall player C Mathew Barzal didn't have to travel after taking part in the All-Star festivities over the weekend in Toronto.
More good news for New York is that D Ryan Pulock (lower body) was activated from the long-term injury reserve Saturday, so it appears he will be back Monday after a 24-game absence, but the team did also place D Robert Bortuzzo (lower body) and C Casey Cizikas (lower body) on LTIR, and it's uncertain when either will return. C Kyle MacLean continues to fill Cizikas' role on the checking line, when needed.
The Maple Leafs put on a show for the All-Star Game weekend, and they hope to carry the good momentum into the unofficial 2nd half. Toronto's Auston Matthews picked up ASG MVP honors Saturday. The Leafs entered the break on a 3-game win streak, including back-to-back wins in a home-and-home with the previously red-hot Winnipeg Jets.
The Under has cashed at a 2-0-1 clip in the past 3 for the Leafs, while going 4-2-1 across the past 7 outings.
Stream the NHL all season on ESPN+, with your team's out-of-market games, exclusive games, originals and more. Get ESPN+ now!
Islanders at Maple Leafs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last update Sunday at 9:25 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Islanders +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Maple Leafs -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Islanders +1.5 (-165) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Islanders at Maple Leafs projected goalies
Ilya Sorokin (14-12-9, 3.17 GAA, .909 SV%, 2 SO) vs. Ilya Samsonov (8-3-6, 3.36 GAA, .878 SV%, 2 SO)
Sorokin is all but likely to get the nod in the crease for the visitors. He allowed 3 goals on 27 shots in a 3-2 setback at home against the Vegas Golden Knights Jan. 23 in his most recent showing. The Isles elected to start Semyon Varlamov (14-12-9, 3.17 GAA, .909 SV%, 2 SO) in the final 2 games before the break, giving Sorokin a little extra rest prior to the break.
Samsonov, who was placed on waivers back in late December, has returned on a mission. He was summoned from the minors due to injuries, and Samsonov is making the most of his 2nd chance. Samsonov went 3-1-0 with a 1.48 GAA and .939 SV% with 1 SO in 4 January starts, and he enters on a season-high 3-game win streak.
Samsonov has allowed just 3 goals 75 shots in the 3-game winning streak. He allowed 4 goals on 29 shots in a 4-3 OT loss at N.Y. Islanders on Dec. 11.
Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!
Islanders at Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Prediction
Maple Leafs 4, Islanders 3
Moneyline
The MAPLE LEAFS (-165) are moderate favorites, and Toronto is not priced out of line for this home game.
One wonders if perhaps Toronto might have a bit of a hangover after all of the hubbub following the All-Star festivities, especially since top stars Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander were front and center all weekend long.
But the Islanders (+140) limped into the break, and they'll be facing a red-hot goalie, while experiencing a bit of an offensive power outage prior to the break. Until we see some change, the same play is rolling with the home side.
Puck line/Against the spread
The ISLANDERS +1.5 (-165) are a little pricey, if you'd like some insurance, but it might not be a bad play.
The Maple Leafs -1.5 (+140) are 0-5 in the past 5 tries on the puck line as a favorite, losing 3 of those games outright, including the previous game against the Isles on Jan. 11 as a favorite (-125).
Over/Under
The OVER 6.5 (-110) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.
The Leafs entered the break with a 2-0-1 run to the Under in the final 3 games, but this is an offense which has piled up 16 goals in the past 5 outings, or 3.2 goals per game (GPG). And while Samsonov has been hot recently, the Leafs have still allowed 29 total goals in the past 9 outings, or 3.2 GPG.
While the Isles have struggled to light the lamp recently, going for just 16 goals across the past 8, or 2.0 GPG, the defense and goaltenders have conceded 62 goals across the past 17 outings, or 3.7 GPG.
Rest also plays a part, as both offenses should be rejuvenated and raring to go.
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.