Penn State at Northwestern odds, picks and predictions
The Penn State Nittany Lions (12-11, 6-6 Big Ten) and Northwestern Wildcats (16-7, 7-5) meet for a Sunday matinee in Evanston. Tip time at Welsh-Ryan Arena will be at 1 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook's lines around the Penn State vs. Northwestern odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
Penn State has run off 3 straight underdog wins, the most recent an 89-79 triumph over Iowa (as a +1.5) Thursday. The Nittany Lions have shot a robust 54.8% from the field (and 53.3% on 3-pointers) over their last 2 games. The 1st 2 games of the PSU run were at Rutgers and at Indiana; a win Sunday would mark Penn State's 3rd straight away from home.
Northwestern last played on Wednesday, snapping a 2-game losing skid with an 80-68 win over Nebraska (covering a -6.5). The Wildcats, who are looking to back up a 76-72 conquest at PSU Jan. 10, have win 6 straight games on home hardwood.
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Penn State at Northwestern odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:23 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Penn State +280 (bet $100 to win $280) | Northwestern -360 (bet $360 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Penn State +7.5 (-102) | Northwestern -7.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 144.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Penn State at Northwestern picks and predictions
Prediction
Northwestern 77, Penn State 72
Moneyline
Unlucky-overall-but-on-a-hot-streak PSU is the lean here, but we should want more than +300 in return to get acceptable leverage. PASS.
Against the spread
Penn State is 8-4 ATS as an underdog this season and 33-15 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. Northwestern is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games against PSU. The Lions are 3-0 straight up and 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games at NU.
Penn State led by 8 early in the 2nd half of the Jan. 10 loss to NU. The Lions are capable of clunkers now and then but are, overall, on a nice trend line with their peripheral analytics. Like Northwestern, PSU is usually a plus in turnover margin; that likely takes away a decent NU advantage in the match-up.
Northwestern was favored by just 1 1/2 points in the Jan. 10 meeting, and the Welsh-Ryan Arena advantage does not figure as a prominent or even above-average one so this points spread looks a bit wide. And Wildcats G Ty Berry, a senior averaging 11.6 points and 3.9 rebounds per contest, is out with a knee injury.
Like PSU, Northwestern is on a nice trend line here, so this figures as a moderate confidence level. Look to BetMGM Sportsbook for the best value on this side. Consider BACKING THE NITTANY LIONS +8.5 (-115) with a partial-unit play.
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Over/Under
The Over has gone 11-2 when PSU takes on teams with winning records, and the Over has cashed in 11 straight NU games. That latter mark includes the Jan. 10 meeting, and the Over is 5-1-1 across the last 7 PSU-NU games.
This meeting gives us a clash of pace with the Lions on the fast side and the Wildcats on the slow side and both at relative extremes. In Northwestern games against the fastest 2 teams the Wildcats have played in the Big Ten (Illinois, Penn State), the Over has gone a combined 3-0.
The potential is there for at least some turnover/transition ball, and PSU should get plenty of looks at the free-throw line. Peg this one as being more destined for the upper 140s, at least by enough of a probability to pull the trigger on a partial-unit play on the OVER 144.5 (-115).
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