Super Bowl 58: San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs odds, picks and predictions

Kevin Erickson | Staff Writer

The San Francisco 49ers (14-5) and Kansas City Chiefs (14-6) meet in Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas Sunday. Kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the 49ers vs. Chiefs odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Chiefs had an underwhelming regular season, going just 11-6. It was good enough for the AFC West Division crown and a home game against the Miami Dolphins during Wild Card weekend, but QB Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs were forced to the road after that. Obviously, the Chiefs won in Buffalo in the Divisional Round and in Baltimore in the AFC Championship Game.

Not only did the Chiefs win all 3 games in the playoffs, but Kansas City has covered all 3 times, too. In fact, the Chiefs are in the midst of their longest cover streak of the season, going 5-0 against the spread (ATS) in the past 5 games. The Under has cashed in 2 of the 3 postseason games, while the total has gone low in 5 of the past 6 outings dating back to Week 16.

The 49ers looked like the best team in the NFL for a while, then they had a 3-game losing streak from Week 6 through 8. Since that skid, San Francisco has looked like a Super Bowl team, and it did enough to secure the No. 1 seed in the NFC and a 1st-round bye.

The bye meant the road to Super Bowl LVIII in the NFC went through Santa Clara, and the Niners needed that hometown help. They eased by the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions by a total of 3 points in each win, but didn't come close to covering either game. In fact, the 49ers needed an epic comeback against the Lions in the NFC Championship Game as they trailed 24-7 at half.

The 49ers outscored the Lions 27-7 in the final 30 minutes in the NFC title game, and they outscored the Packers 17-15 in the 2nd half of the Divisional Round win. San Francisco has split the Over/Under (O/U) in the 2 postseason games, and the Over is 6-3 across the past 9 games.

These teams met in Super Bowl LIV in South Florida with the Chiefs winning 31-20 for the 2nd of 3 all-time titles. Kansas City edged the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35 last season, too, and it is looking to become the 1st back-to-back winner since the New England Patriots (2004-05).

Check out the best Super Bowl prop bets, plus these from BetMGM | DraftKings | FanDuel | Fanatics Sportsbook

49ers vs. Chiefs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:27 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): 49ers -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Chiefs +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Against the spread (ATS): 49ers -2 (-110) | Chiefs +2 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 47.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

49ers vs. Chiefs key injuries

49ers

None

Chiefs

RB Jerick McKinnon (groin) questionable
OG Joe Thuney (pectoral) out

49ers vs. Chiefs picks and predictions

Prediction

Chiefs 27, 49ers 23

Moneyline

The CHIEFS (+110) at plus-money is the play. Kansas City has that championship experience, and siding with Mahomes over QB Brock Purdy is the way to go.

While the 49ers (-130) might be the deeper team, especially at the skill positions, you can't discount Mahomes and the fact he has been through this before. The lights might be too bright for Purdy in his 1st Super Bowl experience.

Against the spread

The Chiefs +2 (-110) doesn't make nearly as much sense as just playing them straight up, unless you're dead-set on the 49ers -2 (-110) winning, but only by a single point.

The better value is taking Kansas City on the moneyline.

AVOID.

Over/Under

OVER 47.5 (-110) is the lean, and it's basically the opposite of the way the public has been going.

Last season, the Chiefs were involved in a 38-35 shootout with the Eagles in the Super Bowl, when everyone suspected we might have a low-scoring game. We won't have nearly as many points, as both defenses are special, but we have plenty of speed to burn on both sides, too.

We'll get 1 big offensive play to turn the tide in favor of the Over, and it wouldn't be surprising to see a defensive score, particularly from the Chiefs, who could coax Purdy into a costly miscue in his 1st Super Bowl start.

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