2024 Daytona 500 odds, picks and predictions

Kevin Erickson | Staff Writer

Editor's note: Sunday's 2024 Daytona 500 was postponed due to rain and will run Monday, starting at 4 p.m. ET. Sunday's original story (below) has been updated.

The NASCAR Cup Series opens the season at Daytona International Speedway Monday for the 2024 Daytona 500. The green flag is scheduled to drop at approximately 4 p.m. ET (FOX). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the 2024 Daytona 500 odds, and make our expert NASCAR picks and predictions.

2024 Daytona 500: What you need to know

Penske Racing driver Joey Logano is on the pole after posting a best speed of 181.947 mph in qualifying
23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick won Thursday's Bluegreen Vacations Duel 1, while Joe Gibbs Racing's Christopher Bell won Duel 2, helping Toyota to the sweep
Defending champ Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is set to go off 35th in the 500. He has 2 career checkered flags out of 3 top-5 finishes in 23 career Daytona starts with a 19.9 Average-Finish Position (AFP)
23XI Racing's Bubba Wallace leads all active drivers with a 12.9 AFP at Daytona, posting 4 top-5 finishes of 12 top-20 runs with 28 laps led in 13 career starts at the track. He was runner-up to Austin Cindric in the 2022 Daytona 500
JGR's Denny Hamlin, a 3-time Daytona 500 winner (2016, 2019, 2020), topped the charts with a 197.477 mph best speed in practice. He comes in hot after winning the 2024 Busch Clash in Los Angeles
Front Row Motorsports driver Michael McDowell, winner of the 2021 Daytona 500, is set to go off on the outside of Row 1. Despite the win, he has a 20.3 AFP in 25 career starts at Daytona
Penske's Austin Cindric, winner of the 2022 Daytona 500, goes off from the 4th spot in the grid. Cindric has a tremendous 15.8 AFP in 5 career starts at DIS

2024 Daytona 500 – Expert pick

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:06 p.m. ET.

As mentioned, CHRISTOPHER BELL (+1800) won Thursday's Bluegreen Vacations Duel 2, so he enters the 500 with a little momentum.

Bell starts from the 4th position, but where you start at the superspeedway doesn't really matter as much as some tracks. We all know there will be carnage, and several cars will be out of the race with various wrecks. In fact, sometimes it's more advantageous to be near the back of the pack, letting some of the pack in front get collected in wrecks.

Bell has really never done much in a NASCAR Cup Series car at Daytona, posting a single top-5 finish in 8 career starts at the track, while posting a mediocre 21.4 AFP. But we've seen unlikely winners secure checkers in the past, and Bell is as good of a value as any.

2024 Daytona 500 – Contender

23XI Racing's BUBBA WALLACE (+2000) is also worth a roll of the dice, with just slightly longer odds than Bell.

Wallace came within a whisker of winning the 500 in 2022, as he was edged out by Penske's Cindric. Wallace is strongest at the superspeedways of Daytona and Talladega, and Monday might be his time to etch his name into the history books.

In 13 career starts at Daytona, Wallace has 4 top-5 finishes and just a single showing outside of the top 20, while registering a circuit-best 12.9 AFP at the track.

Check out Motorsports Wire: For the auto racing fan, Paste BN Sports Media Group's website covers NASCAR, F1, IndyCar and more.

2024 Daytona 500 prop picks

DENNY HAMLIN TOP-10 FINISH (-140)

Hamlin, a 3-time winner of "The Great American Race," rarely disappoints at the track. The driver of the No. 11 machine is now one of the elder statesman on the circuit, and a lightning rod amongst the fans.

He heads into the 500 with 3 career wins among his 11 top-5 finishes (12 top-10 runs) in 36 career starts at DIS with a 17.0 AFP and 666 laps led. At this price, Hamlin is still a pretty good value.

WINNING MANUFACTURER: TOYOTA (+190)

Toyota saw a sweep of Thursday's duel races with Bell and Reddick taking checkers, and we mentioned Hamlin's recent dominance above.

While Toyota hasn't been to Victory Lane since 2020 with Hamlin, for a chance to nearly double up your initial wager, Toyota is quite attractive for Monday's race.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

MATCHBET: MICHAEL MCDOWELL (-120) over Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

This is a battle between former winners. McDowell had a much better weekend, qualifying 2nd behind Logano for the 500. Stenhouse had a much more difficult time and will go off 35th.

Again, starting position doesn't really matter as much at the superspeedway, as you can move up and down the leaderboard quite quickly. Still, McDowell was good for a top speed of 194.569 mph in practice, 9th best among all drivers, while Stenhouse topped out at 192.501 mph. That's a big difference. Ultimately, though, it comes down to luck, and avoiding The Big One.

Get ready, North Carolina!

Online sports betting begins March 11

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X, Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook..

Facebook Twitter Email