2024 Ambetter Health 400 odds, picks and predictions

Kevin Erickson | Staff Writer

The NASCAR Cup Series moves to Atlanta Motor Speedway Sunday for the 2024 Ambetter Health 400. The green flag is scheduled to drop approximately at 2:30 p.m. ET (FOX). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the 2024 Ambetter Health 400 odds, and make our expert NASCAR picks and predictions.

2024 Ambetter Health 400: What you need to know

Front Row Motorsports driver Michael McDowell secured his first-career NASCAR Cup Series pole for Sunday's race with a best speed of 178.844 mph, just edging out Penske Racing driver Joey Logano (178.424 mph)
McDowell has 16 career starts in Atlanta, posting just a single top-5 finish with 1 lap led and a 28.0 Average-Finish Position (AFP) with 4 DNFs
Penske's Ryan Blaney leads all active drivers with an 11.4 AFP with 1 win. He has 4 top-5 finishes among his 6 top-10 runs and 110 laps led in 11 career Cup starts in Atlanta. He'll go off 6th on Sunday
Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott is just on Blaney's heels with an 11.5 AFP, 2nd-best among all drivers, with a win among his 2 top-5's (7 top-10's) and 164 laps led with 1 DNF (did not finish) in 10 career Cup starts. Elliott starts from the 28th spot
RCR's Kyle Busch has 2 checkered flags in 28 career Cup starts in Atlanta with 558 laps led and a 13.6 AFP with 2 DNFs
Joe Gibbs Racing's Ty Gibbs has had mixed results in his 2 Cup starts in Atlanta, finishing 9th and 34th
RCR's Austin Dillon has a single top-10 finish in 14 Cup starts at Atlanta, posting a dismal 21.4 AFP with 2 DNFs
23XI Racing's Bubba Wallace has struggled in Atlanta in 9 Cup starts, posting a 21.0 AFP with a best finish of just 13th

2024 Ambetter Health 400 – Expert pick

Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 6:54 p.m. ET.

CHASE ELLIOTT (+1200) certainly didn't have the season he wanted in 2023, suffering an early-season injury. When he returned in the spring, he never got back to his normal self, going winless in 30 starts for the 1st time since the 2017 season.

Elliott was 14th last weekend at Daytona after starting from the 5th position. He missed the spring race in Atlanta in 2023 but was able to bring it home 13th after qualifying 23rd in the summer run. He won in a caution-marred race in the summer of 2022 in Atlanta, too. He is a nice value at this price.

2024 Ambetter Health 400 – Contender

Penske's AUSTIN CINDRIC (+2500) is worth a look for a chance to multiply your initial wager by 25 times.

Cindric qualified well at Daytona last week, starting 6th, while leading 13 laps. He was able to scoop up 33 points, including 18 bonus points. Unfortunately, he was collected in a late crash, which ruined what was a very good day.

Cindric was 11th in the spring race in Atlanta, and 12th in the summer last season. In 5 career Cup starts, Cindric has a top-5 finish, and 22 laps led. Penske usually shows out well on the pavement in Hampton, and this season should be no exception.

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2024 Ambetter Health 400 prop picks

CHASE ELLLIOTT TOP-10 FINISH (-135)

If you're a little more on the conservative side, Elliott is still a decent play for a top-10 finish, even as the "chalk."

Elliott has finished inside the top 10 in 7 of his 10 starts. That's 70%, a pretty solid conversion rate. Plus, he is due for a strong run Sunday as he looks to make Hendrick 2-for-2 on the young season.

AUSTIN CINDRIC TOP-10 FINISH (+175)

As mentioned above, Cindric averaged an 11.5 finish in 2 Atlanta starts last season. A Penske ride has been to Victory Lane in 2 of the past 6 Atlanta starts, and 4 of the past 10 if you go back to March 2017 when Brad Keselowski was part of the team. Cindric was 3rd in the 2022 summer race in Atlanta, giving him an AFP of 8.7 in the past 3 Cup starts at the track.

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Get ready, North Carolina!

Online sports betting begins March 11

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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