North Carolina at Virginia odds, picks and predictions

Kevin Erickson | Staff Writer

The North Carolina Tar Heels (20-6, 12-3 ACC) and Virginia Cavaliers (20-7, 11-5) meet Saturday at John Paul Jones Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the North Carolina vs. Virginia odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.

The Tar Heels picked up a 96-81 win over Virginia Tech last time out at the Dean Dome, rebounding from an 86-79 loss at Syracuse on Feb. 13. The cover against the Hokies snapped an 0-3 ATS skid, too. The Over has cashed in 4 of the past 5 games for UNC after a 5-0 Under run from Jan. 17-30.

The Cavaliers also played the Hokies in their most recent game, and Virginia was routed 75-41 as a 3.5-point underdog as the Under (128) connected. Virginia has lost 2 of the past 3 games while failing to cover any of those outings. UVA has cashed the Under in the past 2 outings while going 4-2 in the past 6 home games.

North Carolina is No. 9 in the Paste BN Sports Coaches Poll.

Stream select live college basketball games and full replays: Get ESPN+

North Carolina at Virginia odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): North Carolina -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Virginia +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
Against the spread: North Carolina -2.5 (-115) | Virginia +2.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 130.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

North Carolina at Virginia picks and predictions

Prediction

North Carolina 66, Virginia 61

Moneyline

NORTH CAROLINA (-150) is a strong play on the road as a moderate favorite against skidding Virginia (+125), although the Cavaliers have been the kryptonite of the Tar Heels in recent seasons.

Virginia has won 7 of the past 10 meetings head-to-head, including 5 straight meetings in Charlottesville since March 10, 2018. However, the way Virginia looked last time out against Virginia Tech, there is no way it can be trusted.

Against the spread

NORTH CAROLINA -2.5 (-115) is worth backing on the road as a slight favorite. UNC has a slight 3-2 ATS edge in the past 5 meetings with the Hoos.

There is risk, as the Heels are just 1-3 ATS in the past 4 games and 2-4-1 ATS in the past 7 outings. On the road, UNC is 0-3-1 ATS in the past 4 trips, too.

However, Virginia +2.5 (-105) is coming off a 34-point loss on the road against a very mediocre Virginia Tech team, and it's unlikely it gets the job done against a ranked foe.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Over/Under

UNDER 130.5 (-115) is the play, even though this is quite a low number.

The Under has hit in the past 2 games for UVA, with the offense averaging just 45 PPG during that stretch. However, the Cavaliers defense has allowed 53 or fewer points in 5 of the past 9 games.

The Heels dropped 96 on Virginia Tech last time out, and it has gone for 73 or more points in 11 consecutive games. However, facing the Hoos is going to be the biggest challenge of the season for the Heels.

Get ready, North Carolina!

Online sports betting begins March 11

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

College sports coverage from Paste BN Sports Media Group:

Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Clemson / Colorado / Florida / Georgia / Iowa / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Nebraska / North Carolina / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / Texas A&M / USC / Wisconsin /

College Sports Wire: Men's hoops / Women's hoops / High School

Facebook Twitter Email