Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets odds, picks and predictions

Kevin Erickson | Staff Writer

The Miami Heat (33-25) wrap up a 6-game road trip against the Denver Nuggets (40-19) Thursday at Ball Arena. Tip-off for this NBA Finals rematch is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET (TNT). Let's analyze FanDuel Sportsbook's lines around the Heat vs. Nuggets odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Season series: First meeting; Nuggets swept 2-0 in regular-season series in 2022-23, and won 4-1 in the 2023 NBA Finals

The Heat picked up a 106-96 win as 7-point road favorites last time out, Tuesday at the Portland Trail Blazers. Miami is a perfect 5-0 straight up (SU) on the road trip, and have won 7 of the past 8 outings. Even more impressive is that Miami is on an 8-0 against-the-spread (ATS) run. The Under has cashed in 6 of the past 7 contests, too.

Miami has won 5 of the past 6 tries against the Western Conference, while also going 5-1 ATS in those outings. The Under is 7-1 in the previous 8 tries against Western Conference opponents.

The Nuggets registered a 117-96 win against the Sacramento Kings Wednesday night, cashing as 9-point favorites as the Under (227.5) cashed. Denver has won and covered 4 in a row, while the Under is on a 13-4 run in the past 17 games dating back to Jan. 19.

Denver has won 3 of the past 4 games against Eastern Conference foes, but it is just 3-6-1 ATS in the past 10 tries against the East. The Under is 7-1 in the past 8 outings against Eastern Conference opponents.

Heat at Nuggets odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access Paste BN Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:46 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat +152 (bet $100 to win $152) | Nuggets -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
Against the spread: Heat +4.5 (-110) | Nuggets -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 214 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Heat at Nuggets key injuries

Heat

C Thomas Bryant (suspension) out
G Tyler Herro (knee) questionable
F Kevin Love (heel) out
G Josh Richardson (shoulder) out

Nuggets

Not yet submitted

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Heat at Nuggets picks and predictions

Prediction

Nuggets 108, Heat 101

Moneyline

The Nuggets (-180) will cost you just shy of 2 times your potential return, and that's a little too expensive for a standalone wager in this marquee game. As part of a multi-team parlay, including Denver isn't the end of the world, although it does suck some of the value out of your ticket.

Miami (+166) is a tempting play since it has won all 5 games on the current road trip and is 9-2 SU in the past 11 games.

AVOID and look to the spread instead.

Against the spread

The NUGGETS -4.5 (-110) are worth a look in this Finals rematch in the Mile High City. Denver covered its most recent game when playing on no rest last Friday, it is just 4-7 ATS in 11 games when playing the 2nd end of a back-to-back. So, tread lightly.

While the Heat have covered 8 in a row, they're just 2-8 ATS in the past 10 tries against the Nuggets, including last season's championship series.

Miami has been hot against the number, but Denver is no slouch either, covering the past 4 outings. This is a giant game, and the Nuggets lately have been playing their best when the lights are the brightest.

Over/Under

UNDER 214 (-108) is the play in this marquee battle in Denver.

The Under has connected in 4 of the past 6 games, and 13 of the past 17 outings for the Nuggets. At home, the total has gone low in 6 of the past 8 contests.

For the defensive-minded Heat, the total has gone low in 6 of the past 7 games, while the Under is 22-6 in the past 28 contests.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.

Access more NBA coverage:

Facebook Twitter Email