Apple earnings: Here are 6 numbers to watch
SAN FRANCISCO — Apple reports earnings after the close of stock trading Monday. Here are six numbers to watch.
Headline sales and profit. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect earnings per share of $1.30, a 10% gain on last year's fiscal fourth quarter. Apple's (Ticker: AAPL) sales should be $39.85 billion, just over a 6% gain from a year ago.
Despite all the hand-wringing over a maturing product line, those underlying numbers — if Apple delivers — will be strong historically. FactSet, which produces a slightly different sales forecast than Thomson Reuters, says a 6.8% increase in revenue, to $40 billion, would be the highest sales growth since mid-2013. In July, Apple forecast sales between $37 billion and $40 billion.
iPhone revenue. This is a key number. Sales of Apple's smartphones, in current and past generations, are expected to make up more than half of its total revenue for the quarter. Growth here should offset revenue declines in iPods and iPads. Analysts expect $21.5 billion in iPhone sales.
iPhone 6 unit sales. The larger, thinner, possibly bendable iPhone 6 went on sale on Sept. 19. The Monday following, on Sept. 22, Apple said it had sold more than 10 million iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plusses. But it hasn't updated the figure. It will be interesting to see what happened in the final days of the quarter, and what executives say about sales in China, where the launch was delayed until last week because of regulatory issues. Apple didn't update the U.S. iPhone 6 sales tally during its iPad event last week.
Stock buyback plans. Apple's cash hoard had long engendered a mix of disgruntlement and excitement for investors, particularly activists who pressured the company to give more back to shareholders. It announced an initial $45 billion capital return program in March 2012, increased it to $100 billion (including dividends and buybacks) in April 2013, and increased it to more than $130 billion this April.
And some still want more. Carl Icahn earlier this month sent a letter to Tim Cook that said now is a "very opportunistic time" for Apple to buy back more shares.
The shares. Apple can move the market, given its heft. The stock has fallen 3% since the end of September, a lighter decline than the broader market, and is up 22% for the year, ending Friday at $97.67. Apple has historically returned 1.4% in the first regular day of trading after earnings (so, Tuesday in this case), according to Bespoke Investment Group.