Providence airport's flier numbers down 40%, but why?

In a year where a number of U.S. airports are on track for passenger records, Providence's T.F. Green Airport is struggling to offset a steep decline in traffic. The passenger count at the airport has declined by 40% during the past nine years, according to The Providence Journal.

The newspaper writes "in 2005, T.F. Green Airport was the busiest it has ever been. More than 5.7 million travelers passed through the airport, just shy of the terminal building's 6-million-passenger capacity." This year, the Providence airport is on pace for 3.5 million passengers.

The drop in passengers has produced some hand-wringing in Rhode Island. But both airport officials and industry experts say the numbers reflect broader industry changes, and not by problems inherent to Providence. And there are optimistic signs ahead, such as the announcement in September that Providence would land its first-ever regular service to Europe.

"It's not a case of the airport is dying. There is nothing wrong," aviation consultant Michael Boyd of the Boyd Group International says to the Journal. "You've got a very strong, viable, well-managed airport."

Among the trends that have worked against the airport since 2005:

- Airlines used to battle fiercely for market share in nearly every market they served. In recent years, however, carriers have become more conservative, focusing only on their most-lucrative routes and slashing less-profitable ones. In Providence, that's meant airlines have cut back routes. Airlines flew nonstop to 26 destinations nonstop from Providence in 2005, according to the Journal. But that number is down to 14 today, leaving the airport mostly with flights to major hubs.

- Mergers have reduced the number of big airlines in the United States — and in Providence. In 2005, Providence was served by 11 U.S. airlines. Today, five big U.S. airlines fly to Providence, according to the Journal. And, as airlines merged during the past decade, they've also reduced their number of hubs — further limiting the routes carriers are likely to fly from "secondary" cities such as Providence.

- A resurgence in passenger traffic at Boston Logan, which is only about 60 miles from T.F. Green. Boston was one of the nation's faster-growing U.S. airports during the past decade, adding both new airlines and new routes to its schedule. Boston-area infrastructure improvements made in the mid-2000s also made getting to Logan airport easier for many fliers in the region. With more nonstop options, competitive fares and improved access, many Providence-area fliers in recent years have opted for nonstop flights from Boston rather than connecting itineraries from Providence.

Exacerbating that trend was Southwest's decision to expand to Boston in 2009. Before that, Southwest had bracketed Boston with service from both Providence and to Manchester, N.H. Each of those airports is roughly 60 miles from Boston. Southwest has grown quickly in Boston since adding service there, but at least some of that growth may have come at the expense of Providence and Manchester. An April report in The Wall Street Journal calculated that Southwest has reduced its flight count in those cities by 38% and 47%, respectively, since 2009.

For now, Kelly Fredericks — president of the Rhode Island Airport Corporation that runs the Providence airport — tells the Providence Journal his goal is to get the airport back to 5 million passengers a year. Saying that the airport grew at an unsustainable rate en route to its high-water mark in 2005, Fredericks thinks Green can get back to 5 million by growing at a slow, sustainable clip.

Among the routes that could help, for example, will be that new service to Europe. Those flights will be offered on German leisure carrier Condor, which will launch its seasonal Providence-Frankfurt service on June 18. The airline will fly two nonstop flights a week through September on Boeing 767-300 aircraft. It's not a huge increase in service, but it is the kind of incremental growth that could help the airport reverse its trend of declining passenger numbers.