When’s the best time to book holiday flights?
There’s plenty of tried and true advice when it comes to booking holiday flights. For Thanksgiving, try to avoid the most popular dates – Wednesday to Sunday bad, Tuesday to Friday good. Ditto for Christmas and New Year’s, but those windows are variable so try to figure out the most desirable dates and vary yours by a few days in either direction. In almost all cases, flying on the actual holiday will save you money.
But when should you actually book? Priceline did a deep data dive to try to answer that. The popular travel site looked at the top domestic routes over the past three years to determine how prices fluctuate before and approaching the holidays. It also determined the cheapest day of the week to book for each city pair (in most cases it’s Friday, which they found was $3-11 cheaper than booking any other day of the week).
As you’ll see in the numbers below, results can vary widely. For San Francisco to LA, you’d pay $115 round-trip four weeks out, and $188 one week out. But LA-New York was actually $50 cheaper booking last-minute. And New York-Chicago shows almost no change throughout the booking window.
Priceline also checked its Express Deals -- opaque bookings where you don’t learn the airline until after you buy – to show what you’d have found waiting until the last minute in recent years.
No matter where you’re flying for this year’s holidays, start tracking fares early so you’ll be able to strike quickly when you spot a deal.
Holiday fares from 2014-2017 (all fares round-trip)
New York - Orlando
Thanksgiving: Cheapest day on average (overall) to book is Sunday with an average price of $263
4 weeks out average price of $195
3 weeks out average price of $272
2 weeks out average price of $222
1 week out average price of $238
**Express Deal 1 week out on Sunday average price is $176, a $62 decrease from retail rate
Christmas: Cheapest day (overall) to book is Thursday with an average price of $261
4 weeks out average price of $245
3 weeks out average price of $199
2 weeks out average price of $266
1 week out average price of $264
**Express Deal 1 week out on Thursday average price is $197, a $67 decrease from retail rate
New York - Fort Lauderdale
:Thanksgiving: Cheapest day on average (overall) to book is Wednesday with an average price of $264
4 weeks out average price of $220
3 weeks out average price of $212
2 weeks out average price of $206
1 week out average price of $254
**Express Deal 1 week out on Sunday average price is $68, a $186 decrease from retail rate
Christmas: Cheapest day (overall) to book is Thursday with an average price of $259
4 weeks out average price of $224
3 weeks out average price of $283
2 weeks out average price of $223
1 week out average price of $254
**Express Deal 1 week out on Thursday average price is $119, a $135 decrease from retail rate
Los Angeles - New York
Thanksgiving: Cheapest day on average (overall) to book is Monday with an average price of $406
4 weeks out average price of $402
3 weeks out average price of $316
2 weeks out average price of $413
1 week out average price of $351
**Express Deal 1 week out on Monday average price is $301, a $47 decrease from retail rate
Christmas: Cheapest day (overall) to book is Saturday with an average price of $371
4 weeks out average price of $387
3 weeks out average price of $377
2 weeks out average price of $302
1 week out average price of $336
**Express Deal 1 week out on Thursday average price is $202, a $133 decrease from retail rate
New York - Los Angeles
Thanksgiving: Cheapest day on average (overall) to book is Friday with an average price of $384
4 weeks out average price of $329
3 weeks out average price of $323
2 weeks out average price of $340
1 week out average price of $358
**Express Deal 1 week out on Saturday average price is $253, a $104 decrease from retail rate
Christmas: Cheapest day (overall) to book is Friday with an average price of $384
4 weeks out average price of $347
3 weeks out average price of $429
2 weeks out average price of $388
1 week out average price of $391
**Express Deal 1 week out on Friday average price is $207, a $184 decrease from retail rate
Chicago - New York
Thanksgiving: Cheapest day on average (overall) to book is Tuesday with an average price of $235
4 weeks out average price of $297
3 weeks out average price of $240
2 weeks out average price of $213
1 week out average price of $206
Christmas: Cheapest day (overall) to book is Tuesday with an average price of $179
4 weeks out average price of $185
3 weeks out average price of $191
2 weeks out average price of $161
1 week out average price of $181
New York - Chicago
Thanksgiving: Cheapest day on average (overall) to book is Friday with an average price of $230
4 weeks out average price of $201
3 weeks out average price of $250
2 weeks out average price of $164
1 week out average price of $203
**Express Deal 1 week out on Saturday average price is $183, a $20 decrease from retail rate
Christmas: Cheapest day (overall) to book is Saturday with an average price of $222
4 weeks out average price of $212
3 weeks out average price of $215
2 weeks out average price of $191
1 week out average price of $207
**Express Deal 1 week out on Friday average price is $143, a $64 decrease from retail rate
Fort Lauderdale - New York
Thanksgiving: Cheapest day on average (overall) to book is Thursday with an average price of $203
4 weeks out average price of $232
3 weeks out average price of $185
2 weeks out average price of $190
1 week out average price of $185
Christmas: Cheapest day (overall) to book is Thursday with an average price of $172
4 weeks out average price of $179
3 weeks out average price of $157
2 weeks out average price of $165
1 week out average price of $134
Chicago - Los Angeles
Thanksgiving: Cheapest day on average (overall) to book is Friday with an average price of $248
4 weeks out average price of $268
3 weeks out average price of $227
2 weeks out average price of $212
1 week out average price of $222
**Express Deal 1 week out on Saturday average price is $205, a $17 decrease from retail rate
Christmas: Cheapest day (overall) to book is Friday with an average price of $242
4 weeks out average price of $251
3 weeks out average price of $233
2 weeks out average price of $179
1 week out average price of $278
**Express Deal 1 week out on Friday average price is $257, a $32 decrease from retail rate
New York - Miami
Thanksgiving: Cheapest day on average (overall) to book is Monday with an average price of $269
4 weeks out average price of $214
3 weeks out average price of $275
2 weeks out average price of $162
1 week out average price of $201
Christmas: Cheapest day (overall) to book is Thursday with an average price of $242
4 weeks out average price of $238
3 weeks out average price of $275
2 weeks out average price of $266
1 week out average price of $260
Los Angeles - Chicago
Thanksgiving: Cheapest day on average (overall) to book is Sunday with an average price of $275
4 weeks out average price of $211
3 weeks out average price of $233
2 weeks out average price of $305
1 week out average price of $317
**Express Deal 1 week out on Saturday average price is $240, a $76 decrease from retail rate
Christmas: Cheapest day (overall) to book is Tuesday with an average price of $264
4 weeks out average price of $248
3 weeks out average price of $246
2 weeks out average price of $258
1 week out average price of $261
San Francisco - Los Angeles
Thanksgiving: Cheapest day on average (overall) to book is Thursday with an average price of $170
4 weeks out average price of $177
3 weeks out average price of $146
2 weeks out average price of $164
1 week out average price of $174
**Express Deal 1 week out on Saturday average price is $143, a $31 decrease from retail rate
Christmas: Cheapest day (overall) to book is Saturday with an average price of $151
4 weeks out average price of $115
3 weeks out average price of $139
2 weeks out average price of $145
1 week out average price of $188
Los Angeles - San Francisco
Thanksgiving: Cheapest day on average (overall) to book is Saturday with an average price of $163
4 weeks out average price of $171
3 weeks out average price of $162
2 weeks out average price of $168
1 week out average price of $173
**Express Deal 1 week out on Saturday average price is $134, a $39 decrease from retail rate
Christmas: Cheapest day (overall) to book is Sunday with an average price of $129
4 weeks out average price of $105
3 weeks out average price of $139
2 weeks out average price of $116
1 week out average price of $154
**Express Deal 1 week out on Friday average price is $101, a $53 decrease from retail rate
New York - Atlanta
Thanksgiving: Cheapest day on average (overall) to book is Monday with an average price of $304
4 weeks out average price of $283
3 weeks out average price of $288
2 weeks out average price of $304
1 week out average price of $275
**Express Deal 1 week out on Monday average price is $211, a $64 decrease from retail rate
Christmas: Cheapest day (overall) to book is Sunday with an average price of $292
4 weeks out average price of $262
3 weeks out average price of $242
2 weeks out average price of $299
1 week out average price of $331
**Express Deal 1 week out on Friday average price is $226, a $105 decrease from retail rate