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Summer airfare forecast: Where to find the deals

Rick Seaney  |  Special for Paste BN

A summer deal to Sin City was spotted last week, Los Angeles-Las Vegas for $71 — and that was the round-trip price. Don’t get too excited though because super deals are in short supply during peak vacation months.

Most fares are flat for summer

The good news is prices haven’t gone crazy; average year-over-year pricing shows 2016 summer fares essentially flat. You’ll pay about the same as you did last summer, which granted, was a lot — summer is expensive because demand is high — but it won’t be noticeably worse.

That alone makes summer fares a deal. Airline sales tell the story; a few examples from current and last year’s sales:

Denver-New York

  • 2016: $174
  • 2015: $176

Phoenix-Boston

  • 2016: $175
  • 2015: $174

Los Angeles-Fort Lauderdale

  • 2016: $199
  • 2015: $199

Some fares are down for summer

Now for even better news: Some destinations have actually seen average price drops for summer, ranging from 8% to 20% (percentage varies depending on several factors including departure city, when you book, when you fly and more). Cheaper cities include:

  • Chicago: A new entrant to the "cheaper list"
  • Dallas: The Big D may be the hottest U.S. market of all
  • Denver: Beneficiary of intense airline competition for years now
  • New York: Hard to beat three major airports plus Southwest’s robust presence at Islip
  • Seattle: Alaska and Delta continue duking it out to the delight of airfare shoppers
  • Washington, D.C.: An increasing number of good deals including some Caribbean flights
  • Paris: Very good European deals for several months now

Other ways to save

Find the category that fits you best:

• Very flexible traveler: Set airfare alerts to a favorite destination, but you may have to jump on a plane with little notice or fly in the off-peak season.

• Somewhat flexible travelers: Fly during the week, especially Tuesday and Wednesday, or fly on Saturday as these are usually the cheapest days to fly.

• Non-flexible travelers: If you can’t change destinations or travel dates, the single most important thing you can do is to always compare airfare prices. Shopping at one airline site might get you a good deal, but there’s a better chance you’ll miss big savings.

FareCompare CEO Rick Seaney is an airline industry insider and top media air travel resource. Follow Rick (@rickseaney) and never overpay for airfare again.

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