Mid-Atlantic looking at nor'easter early next week
ASBURY PARK, N.J. — A coastal storm will wallop the Mid-Atlantic next week but where it will hit and for how long remain a question, forecasters said.
A fast-moving snow band dusted the Jersey Shore with powder Friday that stuck to trees, grass and parked cars while leaving roadways mostly clear because the ground remained warm from an earlier stretch of warmer-than-normal weather.
"We had March in February. Now we're going to be getting a little taste of February in March," said David Robinson, the New Jersey state climatologist at Rutgers University.
"All winter long we've had short bouts of cold and an occasional snow event," he said. "And then it's bounced right back to being mild, above normal — not so the next week to 10 days at least."
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The National Weather Service's office in Mount Holly, N.J., predicted a significant coastal storm for all of Delaware and parts of Maryland and New Jersey beginning Monday night and lasting into early Wednesday.
"This certainly could be a major and prolonged nor'easter with heavy snow and strong winds," said Rick Cuttrell of Tri-State Storm Watch.
The West is expected to dry out, but areas also will experience January-like temperatures and a drop of 15 to 30 degrees as a cold front moves through, according to weather service forecasters.
"While it has been warm this year, it's not over till it's over," said Matt Steinbugle, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in State College, Pa. "It looks like winter is going to battle back."
Officially, winter has 10 days remaining on the calendar. Steinbugle said parts of Pennsylvania, which have mostly escaped heavy snow accumulations this season, could receive a foot of snow.
Steve DiMartino, owner and lead meteorologist for NY NJ PA Weather, said the storm could zigzag but is definitely bearing down on the Atlantic coast.
"We are still not certain of the exact storm track here," he said. "A track further west along the coast will mean basically rain along the coast and significant snowfall along the interior."
A track further north and east would mean what he called impressive snowfall along the coast but not so much inland.
"The next storm on the horizon, all model runs for several days now are suggesting a formidable coastal storm come Tuesday, say Monday night into Tuesday," Robinson said. "By formidable storm, I mean a nor'easter that will be producing heavy surf, strong winds and some heavy precipitation."
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Farther north, Dennis Griffin of Woodland Park, N.J., was finishing his weekly shopping in the falling snow
"March has always been crazy," Griffin said.
Jersey Shore towns already reeling from one major winter storm on top of the usual battery that beaches withstand each winter can expect even more coastal erosion, Robinson said. Its severity will depend on where and when the coming storm gathers strength.
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"The cases where we get our worst coastal flooding and beach erosion is when the storm develops to our south, intensifies as it gets there and is relatively slow-moving," he said.
Worst-case scenario: Winds from the East push ocean waters into the bays at high tide but as high tide recedes, winds are still pushing the water in.
"And the next high tide comes along, and things haven't gone down as much as they should from the previous high tide," Robinson said.
Contributing: Jean Mikle, Asbury Park (N.J.) Press; Matt Bernardini, The (Chambersburg, Pa.) Public Opinion; Andrew Wyrich and Kaitlyn Kanzler, The (Bergen County, N.J.) Record. Follow Alex N. Gecan on Twitter: @GeeksterTweets