NOAA predicting above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. What can Florida expect?
- NOAA released its prediction for the 2025 hurricane season May 22.
- NOAA is predicting 13 to 19 named storms in 2025.
- Predictions are for six to 10 hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes.
"Here we go," said Ken Graham, director of National Weather Service, as he announced NOAA's official prediction for an above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
NOAA is predicting between 13 and 19 named storms in 2025, making it an above-average season. Of those, six to 10 are predicted to become hurricanes, including three to five strengthening into major hurricanes.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration prediction echoed those released earlier this year by AccuWeather and Colorado State University.
An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. There were 18 named storms in 2024 and a record 30 named storms in 2020.
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The first named storm of the 2025 season will be Andrea.
NOAA predicting 13-19 named storms for 2025 hurricane season
NOAA is predicting there is a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance for a below-normal season.
Forecasters predict:
- Named storms: 13-19
- Hurricanes: 6-10
- Major hurricanes: 3-5
A major hurricane is a Category 3 storm or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
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What conditions favor an above-average hurricane season in 2025?
NOAA considered several factors in its prediction for an above-average hurricane season, including:
- Continued ENSO-neutral conditions
- Warmer than average ocean temperatures
- Forecasts for weak wind shear
- Potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, which produces tropical waves that "seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms."
Combined, each of those factors favor the formation of tropical cyclones.
What about rapid intensification of storms?
Rapid intensification occurs when maximum sustained winds increase by at least 35 mph within a 24-hour period.
It can mean little time to react for those in the path of a storm.
“Every Category 5 hurricane that has hit this country was a tropical storm three days or less prior (to landfall)," Graham said. "If you don’t get goosebumps, I’ll say it again. The big ones come fast. That’s why you need a plan early — because these storms move quickly."
How fast?
"Something that forms in the Gulf could be here in two days."
Will hurricane forecasts be affected by staffing cuts?
"Forecasts won't be impacted," Graham said during a news conference in Louisiana May 22.
"The models are as good as they've been and we'll continue to improve those. We will be able to make sure the warnings go out."
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"We are proud of our team," said Laura Grimm, acting NOAA administrator. "The amount of forecasting that happens and how accurate they are with that is incredible to see in action. Weather prediction, modeling and protecting human lives and property are top priorities.
"We are fully staffed at the Hurricane Center, and we are definitely ready to go. It's a top priority and we are very supportive of our national weather staff."
How do NOAA predictions for hurricane season compare to AccuWeather, Colorado State University?
Colorado State University meteorologists are predicting the following for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season:
- 17 named storms
- 9 hurricanes
- 4 major hurricanes
AccuWeather is predicting the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season could bring:
- Named storms: 13 to 18
- Hurricanes: 7-10
- Major hurricanes: 3-5
- Direct U.S. impacts: 3-6
Florida meteorologist Dr. Ryan Truchelut predicted the 2025 season has a 50-50 shot of landing in the ranges of:
- Named storms: 16-21
- Hurricanes: 7-9
- Major hurricanes: 3-4
Best advice is to prepare now for hurricane season
"Everything is in place for an above-average season," Graham said, before repeating a line often used by emergency officials: "It only takes one."
“This outlook is a call to action: Be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you're ready before a storm threatens. There are no lines for supplies today. Go out there and get your kit."
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"There will never be a "Justa" Category 1 storm or it's "Justa" Cat 2.
"Category doesn't matter. Even a small one has dangers, and indirect fatalities can be higher than direct fatalities. We can stop that. There are preventable fatalities."
Among preventable fatalities Graham mentioned involved generators, downed power lines, heat, and "critters." "All of these dangers after the fact can be significant."
How do 2025 hurricane predictions compare to what happened in 2024?
There were 18 named storms during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Eleven became hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or greater. Five intensified to major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph or greater, with are Category 3 or higher storms.
➤ 2024 Atlantic hurricane season ends with above-average number of storms.
That's above the historical average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service. The season saw above-average activity, with a record-breaking ramp up after lull during what is typically the busiest period — from mid-August through mid-October, the National Hurricane Center said in its post-season wrap-up.
Five hurricanes made landfall in the continental U.S., with two storms making landfall as major hurricanes, according to the National Hurricane Center. Five hurricane landfalls puts 2024 tied for the fourth-most landfalls on records dating back to the 1800s.
➤ Five storms made landfall in the continental U.S., two hit as major hurricanes.
Three of those hurricanes made landfall in Florida: Debby, Helene and Milton.
The 2024 season had it slowest start since 2014, with the first named storm developing June 19, according to NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service.
When does hurricane season start?
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1 and runs until Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
Countdown to the start of hurricane season
National Hurricane Center issuing tropical outlooks
On May 15, the National Hurricane Center began issuing its daily tropical outlooks.
"The tropical weather outlook provides forecasts on areas of disturbed weather that could develop into tropical cyclones," said Larry Kelly, hurricane specialist with the National Hurricane Center, in an email.
"It highlights the location, movement, and development potential of these systems over the next two to seven days.
Is the National Hurricane Center changing the 'cone of uncertainty' again this year?
Based on feedback on the experimental cone first implemented in 2024, this year the National Hurricane Center said it would add a specific symbol — diagonal pink and blue lines — for counties where both a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are in effect.
What else will Hurricane Center do differently in 2025?
The NHC will be:
- Showing a smaller cone to display the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone.
- Issuing an advisory 72 hours instead of 48 hours before the expected arrival of storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds on land.
- Adding a rip current risk map.
- Providing storm surge information for some of the Hawaiian Islands.
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What are hurricane names for 2025 season?
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them:
- Andrea: AN-dree uh
- Barry: BAIR-ree
- Chantal: shahn-TAHL
- Dexter: DEHK-ster
- Erin: AIR-rin
- Fernand: fair-NAHN
- Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL
- Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh
- Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah
- Jerry: JEHR-ee
- Karen: KAIR-ren
- Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh
- Melissa: meh-LIH-suh
- Nestor: NES-tor
- Olga: OAL-guh
- Pablo: PAHB-lo
- Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh
- Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en
- Tanya: TAHN-yuh
- Van: van
- Wendy: WEN-dee
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This story was updated to add new information.